Tonight: Semi-Final 1 (Preview)

The day has finally dawned and Eurovision 2013 is upon us. Today the speculation and hypothetical what ifs end. It's time for business to begin, the results are now indeed very real. So whats to look forward to? Who are my favourites and who's going to qualify? Let's take it from the top.

Austria

Austria opens this years contest with what is a reasonable song that could do with a somewhat better performance. The song has a good studio version that just cannot be picked up live. This probably is not a qualifier given Natalia's performances but still it should be a respectable opener to the show

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Estonia

There are many fans out there for whom this Estonian entry is the one that bet Winne-Pooh. For me this is a dull not outstanding song that has its merits but it is completely lost in the overall scale of the contest, despite a fair draw this probably will end up a near qualifier. This though is very well performed.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Slovenia

Though this song is the first truly up-tempo number that the audience will hear there have been many concerns raised about the vocal abilities behind this song and given that these came through in the jury performance this song now seems dead in the water. However I would still maintain that Hanna has a really great song and I enjoy listening to the studio version of this.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? No

Croatia

Underrated by fans and bookies alike going into this semi-final Croatia looks not just sure of itself but probably the best Balkan song in this years contest. Personally I think this is a great entry and even some of the critics of this song will sure agree that the harmonies are just wonderful. However before rehearsals started I had concerns that this song may struggle in the final as it just does not appear to go anywhere in the song. Though this Klapa entry will surely impress juries, in fact I think it may win the jury vote tonight.

My Grade: 7/10

Qualifier? Yes

Denmark

In my humble opinion this is the best song in this years contest. Everything about it just appeals to me. As a Eurovision fan this song leaves me in the unusual place where I think that though this is my favourite it may not be the best choice for the contest in the long run. Having said that this will sail into the final tonight.

My Grade: 10/10

Qualifier? Yes

Russia

Another song that has it's place booked in the final, but for all the wrong reasons. I see this entry as one which is manufactured and unoriginal. It will do well this year and could possibly win this semi-final, it still is a nice song but I just wish it was stronger.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Netherlands

This is another song that I really hope qualifies just to prove to the Dutch that they can do well at the contest. This song as its faults but overall it makes a nice package that should impress on the night.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

Montenegro

No, just no. I really don't like this song and could think of many others that would have been better choices than a Dubstep entry. I don't get this but given what some influencial people think I'm inclined to see it as a qualifier.

My Grade: 4/10

Qualifier? No

Lithuania 

I like this song to an extent but this is just not one that will appeal to the mass audience and will probably not qualify.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Belarus

It really is a shame that Belarus changed their song and I do not agree with the opinions that if this song was from Turkey we would all be saying that it was a sure qualifier. Given the reports I have heard from Malmo over the last few days I think this would be an unlikely qualifier, but given that we will only be losing six songs this is possible.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Moldova

This is an Eastern European song sung in Romania that will appeal to many people. I see this as a likely qualifier though I think it is a dull song.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Ireland

At this point those of you who have followed the blog with me should know that I am not over keen on this Irish entry, in particular I do not think much of the performance. Having said that I am always very pleased to hear the rather positive feedback and given the late draw and the lack of anything really challenging after it, Ireland should have a positive outlook.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Cyprus

No it's not going to qualify, there is much more entertaining songs in this semi-final and more importantly there are better songs that will soak up the jury votes. Not a qualifier in my book though I have enjoyed the song on occasion. 

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Belgium

Some people argue this is looking more and more sure of a qualification, I’m starting to agree with them, though this is only due to the running order position of the song. If this was any earlier in the draw I would have written this off. It’s by no means my favourite song this year but I don’t hate it in spite of only hearing it for the first time on the national final.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Serbia

I love the Serbian entry this year either as a studio version or as a live performance. This is a sure qualifier given the number of neighbours they have in this semi-final and the song is quite a nice one. How they do on the final night will largely depend on the running position it gets.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

So my 12 points are as follows:

12 - Denmark

10 - Ukraine

8 - Netherlands

7- Serbia

6 - Croatia

5 - Slovenia

4 - Moldova

3 - Russia

2 - Austria

1 - Cyprus

But my prediction as to who will qualify is:

Croatia

Cyprus

Netherlands

Denmark

Ukraine

Russia

Moldova

Serbia

Belarus

Ireland

But of course I will be wrong but I do hope you enjoy the show.

Day 1: Rehearsals As Observed In Dublin

Eurovision 2013 really took it up a gear as rehearsals kicked off in Malmo today. So what did we learn today?

The Stage Looks Amazing
I'm really pleased with the overall stage. I was afraid it would be a bit too much like the 2010 stage when SVT were making some many budget cutbacks.

Semi-Final 1 has a dull start
Despite the EBU's shouting about the importance of not using a random order for the draw SF1 still will have a fairly dull opening of Austria, Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia will only have Slovenia to liven the mood.

There was no major surprises today
This nearly was the biggest surprise of all. It is early days yet, though some surprises may come nothing about any of the songs. Austria and Croatia remain borderline qualifiers though I think that Croatia are still an amazing song. Slovenia was the only country with any real vocal problems though given that this is only the first rehearsal there's a lot of time to iron out problems.

Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all remain some of the strongest songs in the competition and all could conceivably win the contest overall, though I remain unconvinced that Russia will be able to do this, given the votes in that block that will go to Ukraine which has a far more original song.

Of course tomorrow I will be very much looking forward to the Irish rehearsal and will be giving some reaction to it tomorrow.

The Odds Are...(Semi-finals)

With less than two weeks until Eurovision itself really kicks off in Malmo, its time to have a look at what the odds are like are there any really good bets out there? Has a bookie failed to keep their site prefectly up to date with the latest Eurovision news? Anything is possible.

Semi Final 1
Semi-Final 1 interestingly contains some songs that are very well positioned for a win or certainly a top 10 finish however it is also characterised by some of the poorest songs in this years contest.

Most interestingly in this market, though Paddy Power have Denmark as the favourite to win the contest outright they think it has a lower probability of winning semi 1. This is certainly an anomaly, though in recent years it is by no means sure that the winner of a semi-final will win the contest outright. For people who are looking for a fairly sure bet this is probably one of the better offers you will find this year.

For people who are super-prudent each way gamblers, it is interesting to note that the top four countries on Paddy Power all are drawn in the first half of semi-final one. Probability would suggest that surely one of the second half will make the top 3. Belarus is 10/1 which would make a fine each way bet as indeed is Serbia (14/1).

For those who like to qualify betting whether to drown their sorrows even if a song does qualify or whether the song is just worth that punt. Croatia seems like the most likely of the lesser songs to qualify for the final so at 8/11 it's a good bet. As a fan I do notice that the odds of any song qualifying are very, very short this year which shows how close a semi-final will be.

Semi Final 2
As keen fans of the contest will know the winner of this years' contest will more than likely come from semi-final 1, however there are still some interesting bets available for fans.

If your a Margaret Berger fan Norway are just 7/4 on Paddy Power, which, given that they are in the last slot in the second semi-final, makes them well worth a bet. Azerbaijan, at 5/1 may also suit the risk taker, particularly given that they are in the graveyard that is the fourth slot in the semi-final.

Semi-final 2 is much harder to call than semi-final 1, so it could go any way. If your not a risk taker, I would not recommend betting on semi 2.

As regards qualification I would say Finland at 1/3 is well worth a short and is fairly undervalued at this price. Switzerland also could just squeeze over the line so at 10/11 it may well be worth a shot.

My thoughts on the final tomorrow.

Melodifestivalen Semi Final 1: Review

Unfortunately thanks to SVT's bizarre ideas I have to construct a review from clips of less than one minute but lets give it a bash anyway

David Lindgren - Skyline
A strong song to open the competition. David returns from a very successful debut in Melodifestivalen last year. This is broadly what we expected from David this year. This is the favourite to go to the final from this semi-final, and is second favourite to win overall. It also is notable that he won the vote in the dress rehearsal. Personally I was never the greatest fan of this type of song, it feels very hollow. Nevertheless it's still good. Certainly a qualifier and possibly more. Grade: A-

Cookies 'N' Beans - Burning Flags
Seasoned Melodifestivalen competitors Cookies 'N' Beans return to Melodifestivalen with a song by Frederick Kempe. The song itself is fairly old-fashioned Melodifestivalen, however it is endearing in a strange sort of way. Personally I like this but don't think it has a hope. Grade: B

Jay-Jay Johnson - Paris
Debut Melodifestivalen performer Jay-Jay comes with an unusual song with some French influences (at least that's what I think they are). It is a very odd song to listen to the first time round but still, it has its charms. I find it difficult to believe that enough people will be able to listen to this the first time round and get it. So it will be in the running for last place in the semi-final in my view, still a very creative and different song. Grade: C+

Mary N'diaye - Gosa
Once again we have another new Melodifestivalen performer. Mary brings an upbeat pop song with African influences. It's pleasant to listen to but I think we've seen this before with Stella Mawagi - it may sound a little different but it still is not up to the required standard. Grade: C

Eric Gadd - Vi Kommer Aldrig Att Forlora
A rather dull song from Eric with far to much drumming for the overall song. This is just not what I like. That said the song has a nice tune that would be nice without the drumming but if it was entered without the drums then it would be a fairly dull song and would not advance in the competition. Do drums really make a difference? No. Grade: C-

YOHIO - Heartbreak Hotel
Another one of the highly tipped to do well in this semi final. This is a strong rock song but still it is lacking in something and though it could do well I'm not sure this is the right song for the popular band. This might be more of an Andra Chansen then a Finalist. Personally, as many of you may guess rock is not a genre I was ever a fan of. Grade: D

Anna Jarvinen - Porslin
A very surprising song is in seventh position. Anna's song reminds me of some of the Eurovision entries that might be found in the 1970's particularly the early part of that decade. This song is sweet but is it a finalist?, probably not. The one minute clip of the song is last part of the song which not really that dramatic. Still I like this. Grade: B

Michael Feiner & Caisa - We're Still Kids
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you return of Epic Sax man Mark II. This is a fun pop song from the duet. I just love this song, though then again I was a Bjorn Ranelid fan. Though some might not put this direct to the final I think that the Swedish public probably will go for this, particularly as it is in the last running spot in the final. Grade: A

So I hope you enjoy the evening and let's all hope for a fair result.

Is It Just Me Or Has Norway Slipped A Little?

This time last year and the year before that, and the year before that I would always look forward to the Norwegian selection process, MGP. In my mind it has always been a great selection process though it may not have the musical quality of Melodifestivalen or Dansk MGP, it still was Melodifestivalen come early. However I find myself rather disappointed with what has come through in the first semi-final for MGP.

It's not that any one song is particularly awful or indeed it is not that two or three songs are not great. It's just that overall I am left feeling very underwhelmed by this semi. I know that I should be more optimistic about this. This is only the first semi-final, we've only heard one third of the songs. Yet I just feel that everything so far about MGP this year has disappointed me. I know they are trying to change the show a little after the last three years, but still, I had higher hopes anyway the songs (along with some brief thoughts) on them are:

Vidar Busk - Paid My Way
This 1950/1960's music style has performed extremely well in the Nordic national final with bands such as The Lucky Bullets and Top Cats registering a substantial impact on their national finals. Though this style is popular I think that this song lacks something to genuinely lift the song and to make the average Norwegian pick up the phone. I would particularly note the chorus would appear to be weak. Having said all that I am rarely impressed by this style of music. Grade: D

Carina Dahl - Sleepwalking
In a complete change of style from the sexy but superficial song "Guns and Boys" in 2011 Sleepwalking is a much slower R+B style song. It has a very strange opening where we can hear music in the background and then it bursts into a tune. I'm very surprised by this - I didn't expect that sound effect to be used in a Eurovision Song. Overall this song has grown on me with multiple listens, and it is now one of my favourites in this semi-final. Grade: B

Tom Hugo - Det Er Du
A rather unusual song for a Nordic ballad in a national final. It is unusual to find a song that this relaxed and as acoustic as this song is. Overall it builds into a song that is very pleasant to listen to. However it does remind me a lot of a song that was knocked out in the first semi-final last year [Singing from the same position in fact]. Personally I like this. Grade: B

Gromth feat. Emil Solli-Tangen - Alone
Heavy rock meets what could be a relative of Didrik Solli-Tangen [Anyone know are Emil and Didrik actually related?]. This might be just one cross over too many. While I have always been an opera fan, particularly outside of Eurovision I have seen sorts of crossovers with artists such as Katherine Jenkins however really I don't think that this all works together perfectly. This is a song that will probably attempt to appeal to rock fans. I think Opera fans will not appreciate the rock elements of this song. Grade: C

Julie Bergin - Give A Little Something Back
This reminds me of Carina Dahl's song mixed with Tom Hugo, though sadly I don't think that this is as good as either of them. It lacks either an interesting song nor a good hook. Dull and boring. Grade: D+

Mimi Blix - Catch Me
I've always had a soft spot for Mimi. Her extremely sexy performances are wonderful and they generally make up for a discernible lack of genuine talent. Nevertheless I am looking forward to hearing this disco anthem being sung in the semi-final. I think that the song is not perfect as it has too many breaks and style changes and the verses are extremely dull and do not really build the tension in the sense that a normal disco song would. Grade: B-

Datarock - The Underground
It is difficult to put an exact style on this song. In some ways it reminds me of The Showbears and there are elements of current boyband songs and also there is a certain Stayin' Alive (The Bee Gees). This is a rather intriguing song. Very difficult to call this one. Grade: B+

Having reviewed these songs I probably do think that the songs this year are probably not as unimpressive as I first though, but still I think that it is missing some of the genuinely great songs of last year.

My Favourites: Datarock, Carina Dahl and Tom Hugo.

The Odds
Tom Hugo, Datarock, and Julie Bergin are the favourites with two bookmakers, and Tom Hugo, Datarock and Carina Dahl are the favourites with other bookmakers. Though personally I think that Datarock will win and Tom Hugo will do very well to qualify.

What If?

Today I ask the simple question: What if the only the countries with songs in the each contest actually were the ones who could vote. Essentially this means that the six automatic qualifiers are excluded from the semi-finals.

Interestingly in the semi-finals this would not have changed the qualifiers.

Semi 1 

1. Russia - 135

2. Albania - 118

3. Greece - 98

4. Romania - 91

5. Ireland - 83

6. Moldova - 80

7. Cyprus - 75

8. Iceland - 67

9. Denmark - 57

10. Hungary - 50

As you can see the qualifiers don't change but the order of them does. Finland would also have come 11th with Pernilla getting 41 points. In semi-final 2 it was a similar situation.

1. Sweden - 155

2. Serbia -134

3. Lithuania - 89

4. Estonia - 76

5. Bosnia + Herzegovina - 67 

6. Turkey - 61

7. Ukraine - 60

8. Malta - 58

9. Macedonia - 53

10. Norway - 45

This might not seem to make a vast amount of sense but it does show which countries got through with the support of Eastern Europe rather than countries like Estonia who nearly got 1/4 of their points from Germany, Spain and the UK.

Stats from the final will be up shortly