A Semi-Final of Surprises

Last nights semi-final certainly outperformed my expectations. In a night where people didn't seem to radically differ on opinions of a few songs, I thought this would make for some pleasant but not exciting television. However as usual I was proven wrong. 

Certainly this semi-final delivered a variety of results, some expect and some surprising ones. However it was by no means a repeat of last years Semi-Final 1 shock results.

The usual suspects qualified. Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all flew through more than likely I suspect they scored the top three places in this semi-final.

Moldova and Ireland were also widely expected to qualify and they did. I would also say that Ryan Dolan's performance for Ireland last night was excellent and he did us all proud.

The first real surprise was when Lithuania qualified, written off by everyone I was actually very impressed by the performance in the semi-final though I didn't think that the song was strong enough to allow them to qualify. Belarus, who prompt the quote of the night from my brother ("Why is Amanda Holden coming out of the Kinder egg?") were likely qualifiers in a night that had many northern European and Soviet countries voting in that semi-final. 

Estonia also really impressed me on the night. I though Birgit really raised her game on the night and was way head of her national final performance. Finally, who could forget Belgium and the Netherlands? Both of them must be very proud. I thought both countries gave excellent performances, though I do wonder waas Belgium's score impacted on by the fact he was allowed to perform twice?

Finally who could not notice that none of the Balkan's qualified? Next year I suspect it will be wall to wall Balkan ballad coming out of the south east of Europe but until then they can all hope that Macedonia qualifies so they can throw votes at them.

Tonight: Semi-Final 1 (Preview)

The day has finally dawned and Eurovision 2013 is upon us. Today the speculation and hypothetical what ifs end. It's time for business to begin, the results are now indeed very real. So whats to look forward to? Who are my favourites and who's going to qualify? Let's take it from the top.

Austria

Austria opens this years contest with what is a reasonable song that could do with a somewhat better performance. The song has a good studio version that just cannot be picked up live. This probably is not a qualifier given Natalia's performances but still it should be a respectable opener to the show

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Estonia

There are many fans out there for whom this Estonian entry is the one that bet Winne-Pooh. For me this is a dull not outstanding song that has its merits but it is completely lost in the overall scale of the contest, despite a fair draw this probably will end up a near qualifier. This though is very well performed.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Slovenia

Though this song is the first truly up-tempo number that the audience will hear there have been many concerns raised about the vocal abilities behind this song and given that these came through in the jury performance this song now seems dead in the water. However I would still maintain that Hanna has a really great song and I enjoy listening to the studio version of this.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? No

Croatia

Underrated by fans and bookies alike going into this semi-final Croatia looks not just sure of itself but probably the best Balkan song in this years contest. Personally I think this is a great entry and even some of the critics of this song will sure agree that the harmonies are just wonderful. However before rehearsals started I had concerns that this song may struggle in the final as it just does not appear to go anywhere in the song. Though this Klapa entry will surely impress juries, in fact I think it may win the jury vote tonight.

My Grade: 7/10

Qualifier? Yes

Denmark

In my humble opinion this is the best song in this years contest. Everything about it just appeals to me. As a Eurovision fan this song leaves me in the unusual place where I think that though this is my favourite it may not be the best choice for the contest in the long run. Having said that this will sail into the final tonight.

My Grade: 10/10

Qualifier? Yes

Russia

Another song that has it's place booked in the final, but for all the wrong reasons. I see this entry as one which is manufactured and unoriginal. It will do well this year and could possibly win this semi-final, it still is a nice song but I just wish it was stronger.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Netherlands

This is another song that I really hope qualifies just to prove to the Dutch that they can do well at the contest. This song as its faults but overall it makes a nice package that should impress on the night.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

Montenegro

No, just no. I really don't like this song and could think of many others that would have been better choices than a Dubstep entry. I don't get this but given what some influencial people think I'm inclined to see it as a qualifier.

My Grade: 4/10

Qualifier? No

Lithuania 

I like this song to an extent but this is just not one that will appeal to the mass audience and will probably not qualify.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Belarus

It really is a shame that Belarus changed their song and I do not agree with the opinions that if this song was from Turkey we would all be saying that it was a sure qualifier. Given the reports I have heard from Malmo over the last few days I think this would be an unlikely qualifier, but given that we will only be losing six songs this is possible.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Moldova

This is an Eastern European song sung in Romania that will appeal to many people. I see this as a likely qualifier though I think it is a dull song.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Ireland

At this point those of you who have followed the blog with me should know that I am not over keen on this Irish entry, in particular I do not think much of the performance. Having said that I am always very pleased to hear the rather positive feedback and given the late draw and the lack of anything really challenging after it, Ireland should have a positive outlook.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Cyprus

No it's not going to qualify, there is much more entertaining songs in this semi-final and more importantly there are better songs that will soak up the jury votes. Not a qualifier in my book though I have enjoyed the song on occasion. 

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Belgium

Some people argue this is looking more and more sure of a qualification, I’m starting to agree with them, though this is only due to the running order position of the song. If this was any earlier in the draw I would have written this off. It’s by no means my favourite song this year but I don’t hate it in spite of only hearing it for the first time on the national final.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Serbia

I love the Serbian entry this year either as a studio version or as a live performance. This is a sure qualifier given the number of neighbours they have in this semi-final and the song is quite a nice one. How they do on the final night will largely depend on the running position it gets.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

So my 12 points are as follows:

12 - Denmark

10 - Ukraine

8 - Netherlands

7- Serbia

6 - Croatia

5 - Slovenia

4 - Moldova

3 - Russia

2 - Austria

1 - Cyprus

But my prediction as to who will qualify is:

Croatia

Cyprus

Netherlands

Denmark

Ukraine

Russia

Moldova

Serbia

Belarus

Ireland

But of course I will be wrong but I do hope you enjoy the show.

Rehearsals Day 2: The Good, The Bad and Ireland

Today saw eight more countries taking to the Eurovision stage to begin rehearsing for the semi-final that takes place in just one weeks time.

The Good
Unlike yesterday where three of the top four on PaddyPower were rehearsing, so today did not bring quite so many shocks. In reality there is no real outstanding song within these eight though I have a soft spot for Serbia.

Serbia, Cyprus, Moldova and Montenegro all had very competent rehearsals today, the strength of Montenegro was probably the only real surprise, it looks like it will seriously challenge for qualification. Seriously though - do they really need the space helmets.

Serbia did try out a couple of different dresses but coming in the last slot in the first semi-final it is a certain qualifier. Personally I love their song and think they could do better than expected overall in the contest.

Moldova and Cyprus both have similar style ballads though Moldova's performance on stage is certainly more elaborate than Cyprus's. Either way they may still struggle to qualify as they are both fairly dull ballads.

The Bad
Bad is a rather strong word in the context of today's rehearsals. However Belarus, Lithuania and Belgium were all songs that may not be sure of a place in the final and today did them no favours. Belarus just does not have the stage presence, Belgium still had trouble with the vocals and Lithuania probably would be fine if it were not for the attempt to use sunglasses for the performance - like, seriously?

However none of the performances today screamed that there was a serious underlying issue to do with the song or singer. There's nothing that could not be improved on for the second round of rehearsals and I will be keeping a close eye on these and watching with anticipation.

Ireland
Finally we come to Ireland. Reaction to the Irish rehearsal today has been very mixed and has ranged from "fine but nothing special" to "dire" and having seen some of the videos online for the performance in my opinion it is a walking, singing disaster. Nothing is right about the performance, absolutely nothing. The background is uninspired throwing a pile of Celtic symbols in the background of what is meant to be a club song. Vocally there are many problems and the choice of dress for the occasion is brutal. Whoever advised them on dress for Eurovision clearly was having a laugh.

Suffice to say I don't think we've a hope of qualifying on this performance and Ireland really need to up their game if they want to stand a chance on Tuesday next.

More tomorrow as the Semi-final 2 rehearsals kick off.

Day 1: Rehearsals As Observed In Dublin

Eurovision 2013 really took it up a gear as rehearsals kicked off in Malmo today. So what did we learn today?

The Stage Looks Amazing
I'm really pleased with the overall stage. I was afraid it would be a bit too much like the 2010 stage when SVT were making some many budget cutbacks.

Semi-Final 1 has a dull start
Despite the EBU's shouting about the importance of not using a random order for the draw SF1 still will have a fairly dull opening of Austria, Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia will only have Slovenia to liven the mood.

There was no major surprises today
This nearly was the biggest surprise of all. It is early days yet, though some surprises may come nothing about any of the songs. Austria and Croatia remain borderline qualifiers though I think that Croatia are still an amazing song. Slovenia was the only country with any real vocal problems though given that this is only the first rehearsal there's a lot of time to iron out problems.

Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all remain some of the strongest songs in the competition and all could conceivably win the contest overall, though I remain unconvinced that Russia will be able to do this, given the votes in that block that will go to Ukraine which has a far more original song.

Of course tomorrow I will be very much looking forward to the Irish rehearsal and will be giving some reaction to it tomorrow.

On Your Marks, Get Set

Rehearsals for Eurovision 2013 begin at 10:00 am tomorrow and of course for any fan this should give us a more interesting insight into what the Eurovision Song Contest this year looks like and how the competition will pan out.

Sadly for me this year I will not have the time I had last year to sit in front of my computer and enjoy all the updates that come from Malmo as unfortunately UCD decided to schedule their summer exams during the two weeks of the contest.

For me this is quite a dull year. I think last year was the absolute climax for me and this year the combination of lack of time and the fact that none of the entries are really motivating me this year. Yes I want to see Denmark on stage when the credits role on Saturday the 18th May, however unlike many other years the songs that are also potential winners are very good in their own right and probably would do a lot for the image of the contest.

In fact, I am in unusual place where I believe the song I want to win is not the one that I think would be best for this contest in the long run. This has never arisen for me before and probably is what leaves me rather unmotivated for 2013.

Nevertheless over the next two weeks I will be following with interest reading all that I can trying to understand what is happening on the ground in Malmo and trying to answer the question we all want to know. Who will be the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013.

The Odds Are...(Semi-finals)

With less than two weeks until Eurovision itself really kicks off in Malmo, its time to have a look at what the odds are like are there any really good bets out there? Has a bookie failed to keep their site prefectly up to date with the latest Eurovision news? Anything is possible.

Semi Final 1
Semi-Final 1 interestingly contains some songs that are very well positioned for a win or certainly a top 10 finish however it is also characterised by some of the poorest songs in this years contest.

Most interestingly in this market, though Paddy Power have Denmark as the favourite to win the contest outright they think it has a lower probability of winning semi 1. This is certainly an anomaly, though in recent years it is by no means sure that the winner of a semi-final will win the contest outright. For people who are looking for a fairly sure bet this is probably one of the better offers you will find this year.

For people who are super-prudent each way gamblers, it is interesting to note that the top four countries on Paddy Power all are drawn in the first half of semi-final one. Probability would suggest that surely one of the second half will make the top 3. Belarus is 10/1 which would make a fine each way bet as indeed is Serbia (14/1).

For those who like to qualify betting whether to drown their sorrows even if a song does qualify or whether the song is just worth that punt. Croatia seems like the most likely of the lesser songs to qualify for the final so at 8/11 it's a good bet. As a fan I do notice that the odds of any song qualifying are very, very short this year which shows how close a semi-final will be.

Semi Final 2
As keen fans of the contest will know the winner of this years' contest will more than likely come from semi-final 1, however there are still some interesting bets available for fans.

If your a Margaret Berger fan Norway are just 7/4 on Paddy Power, which, given that they are in the last slot in the second semi-final, makes them well worth a bet. Azerbaijan, at 5/1 may also suit the risk taker, particularly given that they are in the graveyard that is the fourth slot in the semi-final.

Semi-final 2 is much harder to call than semi-final 1, so it could go any way. If your not a risk taker, I would not recommend betting on semi 2.

As regards qualification I would say Finland at 1/3 is well worth a short and is fairly undervalued at this price. Switzerland also could just squeeze over the line so at 10/11 it may well be worth a shot.

My thoughts on the final tomorrow.

From Rona To This: Albania - The Review

Festival I Kenges is by far and away one of the strangest national final formats currently in existence for Eurovision. Not because it has a confusing format (if you don’t mind annual format changes) but it throws out some of the most random winners compared with an national final format, with no set pattern nor any sign of a theory emerging about what constitutes a good song in FiK. Last year certainly was a year which gave me great confidence in the Albanian selection process and as followers of this blog will know I was a huge fan of her and her song.

Despite that confidence building moment Albania have taken that and smashed it into many pieces, leaving me curled up in a corner rocking back and forth screaming about the advantages of public selection. Why you might ask? Well, I’m not convinced that sending Adrian Lulgjurai and Bledar Sejko and their song idenditet was the right choice. Firstly I think that it is too much of a pop/rock song to do very well at the contest. Secondly I think the FiK performance didn’t suggest anything special about the pair that will bring them through the glass curtain and into peoples living rooms.

The song itself is probably one which is a bit too rockish for me to like it. However I like parts of the song however there are other parts of it that just turn me off. The song is very Balkan sounding even for a rock song.

Overall the success of this song depends on the jury support it receives. It may come in the public’s top 10 in the semi-final but if the juries don’t support it its dead in the water.

Verdict: It just feels that Albania has learned nothing from last year. This still feels like this song could come from any FiK final.

Grade: D- (42%)

Switzerland: The Review

Switzerland surprised everyone this year by failing to be the first country to pick their song for Eurovision 2013, piped at the post by Belarus who rushed through their final, once again though we were reminded that Belarus need to rush through their selection as there may be more to come…Switzerland are always a country who put on a good show for a national final, and though we might not always agree with the result it is still something to watch in December.

I quite like the Swiss entry this year I think it offers quite a lot. You and Me is a very please song, though I was not completely impressed by it when I first heard it. My fear for this entry is it may be lost on the night but it does have the advantage of not being surrounded by rock entries which would may have been the case it earlier years.

My issue with this is that the songs appeal, and probably what made it stand out so much at the national final was the songs association with the Salvation Army. Due to the nature of the rules of the contest, this advantage, which would have distinguished it from other entries, will be gone on stage. So it is difficult to say that it will be as distinctive as it was in the national final.

Verdict: A difficult call at this point, a strong song which could be lost in Eurovision but I am going to support it and say that it has the potential to do well. However I don’t think this will trouble the top 10.

Grade: C