The Odds Are...(Semi-finals)

With less than two weeks until Eurovision itself really kicks off in Malmo, its time to have a look at what the odds are like are there any really good bets out there? Has a bookie failed to keep their site prefectly up to date with the latest Eurovision news? Anything is possible.

Semi Final 1
Semi-Final 1 interestingly contains some songs that are very well positioned for a win or certainly a top 10 finish however it is also characterised by some of the poorest songs in this years contest.

Most interestingly in this market, though Paddy Power have Denmark as the favourite to win the contest outright they think it has a lower probability of winning semi 1. This is certainly an anomaly, though in recent years it is by no means sure that the winner of a semi-final will win the contest outright. For people who are looking for a fairly sure bet this is probably one of the better offers you will find this year.

For people who are super-prudent each way gamblers, it is interesting to note that the top four countries on Paddy Power all are drawn in the first half of semi-final one. Probability would suggest that surely one of the second half will make the top 3. Belarus is 10/1 which would make a fine each way bet as indeed is Serbia (14/1).

For those who like to qualify betting whether to drown their sorrows even if a song does qualify or whether the song is just worth that punt. Croatia seems like the most likely of the lesser songs to qualify for the final so at 8/11 it's a good bet. As a fan I do notice that the odds of any song qualifying are very, very short this year which shows how close a semi-final will be.

Semi Final 2
As keen fans of the contest will know the winner of this years' contest will more than likely come from semi-final 1, however there are still some interesting bets available for fans.

If your a Margaret Berger fan Norway are just 7/4 on Paddy Power, which, given that they are in the last slot in the second semi-final, makes them well worth a bet. Azerbaijan, at 5/1 may also suit the risk taker, particularly given that they are in the graveyard that is the fourth slot in the semi-final.

Semi-final 2 is much harder to call than semi-final 1, so it could go any way. If your not a risk taker, I would not recommend betting on semi 2.

As regards qualification I would say Finland at 1/3 is well worth a short and is fairly undervalued at this price. Switzerland also could just squeeze over the line so at 10/11 it may well be worth a shot.

My thoughts on the final tomorrow.

Eurovision 2013

Yesterday the heads of delegations met in Sweden to finalise the list of this year’s entries and to discuss some smaller and more mirco aspects of the contest. This meeting rarely tells us anything important but it does mark the end of national final season 2013 – and what a year it has been.

However now it is time for the real Eurovision debate to begin. 39 entries only one will leave as the winner? That’s the big question.

2013 will never stand out as a unique year of original entries. Empirical generalisations would appear to suggest that most countries have played it safe when picking entries, meaning that very few countries have selected something original. There has been a noticeable absence of really strong entries this year. It is unlikely that we will see the cutting edge performances like Euphoria or the tear-jerkingly amazing vocal performance of Pastora Soler. Norway is probably the only country really bucking this trend. Margaret Berger’s song is one of the strongest and most original entry this year.

What are the bookies saying?

The early frontrunners are the Scandinavian entries. Denmark, Norway and Sweden lead the odds on Paddy Power, followed closely by Netherlands. The problem here is that when a region of Europe all produces very strong entries it becomes very difficult for one of them to gather all of the votes. Instead they take over the top 10. However in other years we’ve seen two Nordic countries come in the top 5. If we broadly define the UK as a part of Northern Europe then we may also note that 2009 had three northern European countries in the top 5.

The Big 5

The Big 5 have produced a very mixed range of songs. The UK’s entry will probably advance their place on last year but it is difficult to image Bonny Tyler on the left hand side of the scoreboard. Similarly France have missed the boat again this year, though Spain’s entry is a bit below average it still is well received. Italy’s strong entry is similarly well receive. Germany’s entry is the strongest of the big 5.

What do I think?

Straight forward as predictions are it is a very, very hard year to call. The strength of northern Europe and the Caucus states such as Georgia, mean that some countries may lose out of qualifying for the final. I have been leaning towards Denmark of late though some other entries have caught my eye.

My full reviews of ESC will begin soon then I might be better able to put names on who will do well.