The Final Running Order

In no other year has the running order been so controversial in the contest. Many years before this I can remember running upstairs after any semi-final to see the press conference to see what slots are drawn. However according to the EBU there was no need for me to do this as "the running order has no statistical impact on the outcome of the contest". TM EBU.

This years running order will of course be controversial but here it is:

1. France
2. Lithuania
3. Moldova
4. Finland
5. Spain
6. Belgium
7. Estonia
8. Belarus
9. Malta
10. Russia
11. Germany
12. Armenia
13. Netherlands
14. Romania
15. UK
16. Sweden
17. Hungary
18. Denmark
19. Iceland
20. Azerbaijan
21. Greece
22. Ukraine
23. Italy
24. Norway
25. Georgia
26. Ireland

It is of coursesurprising that SVT, who drew up this running order to be approved by the EBU, didn't place Denmark last. Though it is clear that Sweden do not really want to host the contest again, I think they would be very happy to deliver a win for Denmark. At this point I think it is fairly clear that Denmark is the favourite and I do expect the Danes to win the contest for the third time. The only question left in my opinion is will they be able to break 360 points and become the best Eurovision winner of all time.

Ireland should also be really pleased with being able to close the contest.

More analysis of the draw to follow in the morning.

Thoughts On Tonight's Results

So tonight saw the final ten countries be added to the final line up, and while I wait for the running order to arrive my main thoughts on the talking points of semi-final 2 are:

• Balkan's decide Eurovision: For the first time since 1985 there's no Balkan in the final meaning a lot of votes are going to be swishing around there that would otherwise be used on good old fashioned neighbourly voting. However despite how many people have suggested that the Balkan's will decide the contest this year I would actually suggest that their votes will no longer be bloc but instead go all around Europe. 

• San Marino didn't qualify despite the expectations that it could. Personally I thought the performance came across very poorly on television so I was not overly surprised by that.

• Israel didn't get through either, I was surprised by this as I thought that the juries would pull her over the line. However it was a dull song that didn't even win the public televote in Kdam so it understandable why it failed to qualify.

• Hungary qualified: I don't really know how to react to this.

All in all this was a great semi-final and I am really looking forward to the final regardless of who the winners or losers may be, Sweden will put on a great show.

Semi-Final 2: Preview

So we may have already seen the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest *cough*Denmark*cough* but it doesn't mean we have seen all of the top songs of this contest. In reality I think that semi-final 2 actually offers a much broader range of music than semi-final 1, which mostly consisted of pop songs.
So what's on offer?

Latvia
Despite energetic performances, a good song and the mere fact that they are opening semi-final 2, Latvia should have a great entry on their hands. However despite this their entry lacks the luster that I was hoping for and this will have great difficulty qualifying. I guess PeR can take some heart from the fact that Zlata Ognevich was dancing to this today in the press centre during rehearsals.
My Grade: 3/10
Qualifier: No

San Marino
Though San Marino have sent Valentina last year this song could not have been more different. This is a mature, high brow song that should deliver for them. I really like this song, though I wish that it was one minute of ballad and two minutes of disco, but still this should just about qualify. The absence of Italy from voting in this semi-final is a problem for San Marino though.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier: Yes

FYR Macedonia
What can I say about this? I really like Lorenzo and his song. I don't like Esma popping in during it. Overall this is a non-qualifier and a complete mess. It also lacks a lot of neighbours in semi-final 2 and by extension it may find it hard to get points from non-Balkan countries.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Qualifier: No

Azerbaijan
I never really have liked Azerbaijan in the Eurovision Song Contest, except for their entry last year. However this year I think they have a great textbook entry though I am concerned that nerves may get to Farid on the night, it will have a great vocal and will sail into the final.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Qualifier: Yes

Finland
This is truly a fun song. I've loved this from when I heard it before the Finnish national final in February. Krista is able to deliver a competent and entertaining performance and I think this should make the final comfortably.
My Grade: 9/10
Qualifier: Yes

Malta
Tonight Gianluca will bring a lot of fun to the stage. However despite what some have said I don't see this as a potential winner. I do see it getting out of this semi-final though, to an average final position.
I really enjoy this song but by no means do I love it.
My Grade: 7/10
Qualifier: Yes

Bulgaria
Montenegro didn't do it. There's very few Bulgarian friends in this semi-final to pull this into the final. No matter what people say it is really hard to believe that this will come anywhere above last.
My Grade: 2.5/10
Qualifier: No

Iceland
I sadly have to say that I don't think Iceland will be able to make the final this year with this song. It is still a great song and could be a great qualifier. However it is highly unlikely that the majority of the qualifiers will come from the first half of the draw so I don't think it will qualify.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier: No

Greece
I really don't over like this song. Its fun but for me it is a bit shallow for what I would want to win the Eurovision. This style of song will always do well at the contest particularly when there is a distinct lack of jokish entries. Certainly a qualifier but hard to say where they will come after this.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Qualifier: Yes

Israel
This is arguably one of the best ballads in this year's contest and with a strong performance from Moran this should comfortably qualify.
My Grade: 7.5/10
Qualifier: Yes

Armenia
I really do not like this song. It's dull it's boring and I always skip it when I see it on my player. Having said that I could image that the juries may push this through based on the quality of the voices of the song.
My Grade: 1/10
Qualifier: No

Hungary
I always have had a soft spot for this song but I don't think that it will qualify based on the reports I have read from the rehearsals. ByeAlex simply is not making a strong enough effort to do well. I can't imagine this making it above 15th place.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier: No

Norway
Is there any reason why this song will not make it to the final? Margaret has delivered some very strong performances in the national final and in the rehearsals. This is a strong song and singer. I'm not a huge fan of this song and do not understand why it's so hyped up but it still will do well.
My Grade: 6/10
Qualifier: Yes

Albania
From Suus Albania completely changed the style of song they send to Eurovision this year. I was very surprised by this winning FiK and I think that this could do either fairly well or bomb at this year's contest. If it does qualify expect it to receive quite a lot of ex-Yugoslav countries. This is the only real rock song at this year's contest so that cannot be discounted.
My Grade: 4/10
Qualifier: Yes

Georgia
Clearly this is the most cheesy song I could image at Eurovision - and I love this. Song uses every little trick in the book and I just want to be drawn into it and sing it out loud. This is clearly in the final and a possible winner.
My Grade: 9.5/10
Qualifier: Yes

Switzerland
Switzerland lacks a lot of luster which I though that it would have when it came to Eurovision. It probably won't qualify unless the Salvation Army really gets involved.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier: No

Romania
No, just no. I don't like this song. This will do well but I can imagine it not qualifying. It should qualify but I think it could not too.
My Grade: 1.5/10
Qualifier: Yes

So my top 10 are:

12 points - Georgia

10 points - Finland

8 points - Iceland

7 points - San Marino

6 points - Israel

5 points - Malta

4 points - Norway

3 points - Switzerland

2 points - Hungary

1 point - Azerbaijan

So I think the following will qualify to the final:

1. San Marino

2. Azerbaijan

3. Finland

4. Malta

5. Greece

6. Israel

7. Norway

8. Albania

9. Georgia

10. Romania

A Semi-Final of Surprises

Last nights semi-final certainly outperformed my expectations. In a night where people didn't seem to radically differ on opinions of a few songs, I thought this would make for some pleasant but not exciting television. However as usual I was proven wrong. 

Certainly this semi-final delivered a variety of results, some expect and some surprising ones. However it was by no means a repeat of last years Semi-Final 1 shock results.

The usual suspects qualified. Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all flew through more than likely I suspect they scored the top three places in this semi-final.

Moldova and Ireland were also widely expected to qualify and they did. I would also say that Ryan Dolan's performance for Ireland last night was excellent and he did us all proud.

The first real surprise was when Lithuania qualified, written off by everyone I was actually very impressed by the performance in the semi-final though I didn't think that the song was strong enough to allow them to qualify. Belarus, who prompt the quote of the night from my brother ("Why is Amanda Holden coming out of the Kinder egg?") were likely qualifiers in a night that had many northern European and Soviet countries voting in that semi-final. 

Estonia also really impressed me on the night. I though Birgit really raised her game on the night and was way head of her national final performance. Finally, who could forget Belgium and the Netherlands? Both of them must be very proud. I thought both countries gave excellent performances, though I do wonder waas Belgium's score impacted on by the fact he was allowed to perform twice?

Finally who could not notice that none of the Balkan's qualified? Next year I suspect it will be wall to wall Balkan ballad coming out of the south east of Europe but until then they can all hope that Macedonia qualifies so they can throw votes at them.

Tonight: Semi-Final 1 (Preview)

The day has finally dawned and Eurovision 2013 is upon us. Today the speculation and hypothetical what ifs end. It's time for business to begin, the results are now indeed very real. So whats to look forward to? Who are my favourites and who's going to qualify? Let's take it from the top.

Austria

Austria opens this years contest with what is a reasonable song that could do with a somewhat better performance. The song has a good studio version that just cannot be picked up live. This probably is not a qualifier given Natalia's performances but still it should be a respectable opener to the show

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Estonia

There are many fans out there for whom this Estonian entry is the one that bet Winne-Pooh. For me this is a dull not outstanding song that has its merits but it is completely lost in the overall scale of the contest, despite a fair draw this probably will end up a near qualifier. This though is very well performed.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Slovenia

Though this song is the first truly up-tempo number that the audience will hear there have been many concerns raised about the vocal abilities behind this song and given that these came through in the jury performance this song now seems dead in the water. However I would still maintain that Hanna has a really great song and I enjoy listening to the studio version of this.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? No

Croatia

Underrated by fans and bookies alike going into this semi-final Croatia looks not just sure of itself but probably the best Balkan song in this years contest. Personally I think this is a great entry and even some of the critics of this song will sure agree that the harmonies are just wonderful. However before rehearsals started I had concerns that this song may struggle in the final as it just does not appear to go anywhere in the song. Though this Klapa entry will surely impress juries, in fact I think it may win the jury vote tonight.

My Grade: 7/10

Qualifier? Yes

Denmark

In my humble opinion this is the best song in this years contest. Everything about it just appeals to me. As a Eurovision fan this song leaves me in the unusual place where I think that though this is my favourite it may not be the best choice for the contest in the long run. Having said that this will sail into the final tonight.

My Grade: 10/10

Qualifier? Yes

Russia

Another song that has it's place booked in the final, but for all the wrong reasons. I see this entry as one which is manufactured and unoriginal. It will do well this year and could possibly win this semi-final, it still is a nice song but I just wish it was stronger.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Netherlands

This is another song that I really hope qualifies just to prove to the Dutch that they can do well at the contest. This song as its faults but overall it makes a nice package that should impress on the night.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

Montenegro

No, just no. I really don't like this song and could think of many others that would have been better choices than a Dubstep entry. I don't get this but given what some influencial people think I'm inclined to see it as a qualifier.

My Grade: 4/10

Qualifier? No

Lithuania 

I like this song to an extent but this is just not one that will appeal to the mass audience and will probably not qualify.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Belarus

It really is a shame that Belarus changed their song and I do not agree with the opinions that if this song was from Turkey we would all be saying that it was a sure qualifier. Given the reports I have heard from Malmo over the last few days I think this would be an unlikely qualifier, but given that we will only be losing six songs this is possible.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Moldova

This is an Eastern European song sung in Romania that will appeal to many people. I see this as a likely qualifier though I think it is a dull song.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Ireland

At this point those of you who have followed the blog with me should know that I am not over keen on this Irish entry, in particular I do not think much of the performance. Having said that I am always very pleased to hear the rather positive feedback and given the late draw and the lack of anything really challenging after it, Ireland should have a positive outlook.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Cyprus

No it's not going to qualify, there is much more entertaining songs in this semi-final and more importantly there are better songs that will soak up the jury votes. Not a qualifier in my book though I have enjoyed the song on occasion. 

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Belgium

Some people argue this is looking more and more sure of a qualification, I’m starting to agree with them, though this is only due to the running order position of the song. If this was any earlier in the draw I would have written this off. It’s by no means my favourite song this year but I don’t hate it in spite of only hearing it for the first time on the national final.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Serbia

I love the Serbian entry this year either as a studio version or as a live performance. This is a sure qualifier given the number of neighbours they have in this semi-final and the song is quite a nice one. How they do on the final night will largely depend on the running position it gets.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

So my 12 points are as follows:

12 - Denmark

10 - Ukraine

8 - Netherlands

7- Serbia

6 - Croatia

5 - Slovenia

4 - Moldova

3 - Russia

2 - Austria

1 - Cyprus

But my prediction as to who will qualify is:

Croatia

Cyprus

Netherlands

Denmark

Ukraine

Russia

Moldova

Serbia

Belarus

Ireland

But of course I will be wrong but I do hope you enjoy the show.

Rehearsals Day 2: The Good, The Bad and Ireland

Today saw eight more countries taking to the Eurovision stage to begin rehearsing for the semi-final that takes place in just one weeks time.

The Good
Unlike yesterday where three of the top four on PaddyPower were rehearsing, so today did not bring quite so many shocks. In reality there is no real outstanding song within these eight though I have a soft spot for Serbia.

Serbia, Cyprus, Moldova and Montenegro all had very competent rehearsals today, the strength of Montenegro was probably the only real surprise, it looks like it will seriously challenge for qualification. Seriously though - do they really need the space helmets.

Serbia did try out a couple of different dresses but coming in the last slot in the first semi-final it is a certain qualifier. Personally I love their song and think they could do better than expected overall in the contest.

Moldova and Cyprus both have similar style ballads though Moldova's performance on stage is certainly more elaborate than Cyprus's. Either way they may still struggle to qualify as they are both fairly dull ballads.

The Bad
Bad is a rather strong word in the context of today's rehearsals. However Belarus, Lithuania and Belgium were all songs that may not be sure of a place in the final and today did them no favours. Belarus just does not have the stage presence, Belgium still had trouble with the vocals and Lithuania probably would be fine if it were not for the attempt to use sunglasses for the performance - like, seriously?

However none of the performances today screamed that there was a serious underlying issue to do with the song or singer. There's nothing that could not be improved on for the second round of rehearsals and I will be keeping a close eye on these and watching with anticipation.

Ireland
Finally we come to Ireland. Reaction to the Irish rehearsal today has been very mixed and has ranged from "fine but nothing special" to "dire" and having seen some of the videos online for the performance in my opinion it is a walking, singing disaster. Nothing is right about the performance, absolutely nothing. The background is uninspired throwing a pile of Celtic symbols in the background of what is meant to be a club song. Vocally there are many problems and the choice of dress for the occasion is brutal. Whoever advised them on dress for Eurovision clearly was having a laugh.

Suffice to say I don't think we've a hope of qualifying on this performance and Ireland really need to up their game if they want to stand a chance on Tuesday next.

More tomorrow as the Semi-final 2 rehearsals kick off.

Day 1: Rehearsals As Observed In Dublin

Eurovision 2013 really took it up a gear as rehearsals kicked off in Malmo today. So what did we learn today?

The Stage Looks Amazing
I'm really pleased with the overall stage. I was afraid it would be a bit too much like the 2010 stage when SVT were making some many budget cutbacks.

Semi-Final 1 has a dull start
Despite the EBU's shouting about the importance of not using a random order for the draw SF1 still will have a fairly dull opening of Austria, Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia will only have Slovenia to liven the mood.

There was no major surprises today
This nearly was the biggest surprise of all. It is early days yet, though some surprises may come nothing about any of the songs. Austria and Croatia remain borderline qualifiers though I think that Croatia are still an amazing song. Slovenia was the only country with any real vocal problems though given that this is only the first rehearsal there's a lot of time to iron out problems.

Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all remain some of the strongest songs in the competition and all could conceivably win the contest overall, though I remain unconvinced that Russia will be able to do this, given the votes in that block that will go to Ukraine which has a far more original song.

Of course tomorrow I will be very much looking forward to the Irish rehearsal and will be giving some reaction to it tomorrow.

On Your Marks, Get Set

Rehearsals for Eurovision 2013 begin at 10:00 am tomorrow and of course for any fan this should give us a more interesting insight into what the Eurovision Song Contest this year looks like and how the competition will pan out.

Sadly for me this year I will not have the time I had last year to sit in front of my computer and enjoy all the updates that come from Malmo as unfortunately UCD decided to schedule their summer exams during the two weeks of the contest.

For me this is quite a dull year. I think last year was the absolute climax for me and this year the combination of lack of time and the fact that none of the entries are really motivating me this year. Yes I want to see Denmark on stage when the credits role on Saturday the 18th May, however unlike many other years the songs that are also potential winners are very good in their own right and probably would do a lot for the image of the contest.

In fact, I am in unusual place where I believe the song I want to win is not the one that I think would be best for this contest in the long run. This has never arisen for me before and probably is what leaves me rather unmotivated for 2013.

Nevertheless over the next two weeks I will be following with interest reading all that I can trying to understand what is happening on the ground in Malmo and trying to answer the question we all want to know. Who will be the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013.