A Semi-Final of Surprises

Last nights semi-final certainly outperformed my expectations. In a night where people didn't seem to radically differ on opinions of a few songs, I thought this would make for some pleasant but not exciting television. However as usual I was proven wrong. 

Certainly this semi-final delivered a variety of results, some expect and some surprising ones. However it was by no means a repeat of last years Semi-Final 1 shock results.

The usual suspects qualified. Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all flew through more than likely I suspect they scored the top three places in this semi-final.

Moldova and Ireland were also widely expected to qualify and they did. I would also say that Ryan Dolan's performance for Ireland last night was excellent and he did us all proud.

The first real surprise was when Lithuania qualified, written off by everyone I was actually very impressed by the performance in the semi-final though I didn't think that the song was strong enough to allow them to qualify. Belarus, who prompt the quote of the night from my brother ("Why is Amanda Holden coming out of the Kinder egg?") were likely qualifiers in a night that had many northern European and Soviet countries voting in that semi-final. 

Estonia also really impressed me on the night. I though Birgit really raised her game on the night and was way head of her national final performance. Finally, who could forget Belgium and the Netherlands? Both of them must be very proud. I thought both countries gave excellent performances, though I do wonder waas Belgium's score impacted on by the fact he was allowed to perform twice?

Finally who could not notice that none of the Balkan's qualified? Next year I suspect it will be wall to wall Balkan ballad coming out of the south east of Europe but until then they can all hope that Macedonia qualifies so they can throw votes at them.

Tonight: Semi-Final 1 (Preview)

The day has finally dawned and Eurovision 2013 is upon us. Today the speculation and hypothetical what ifs end. It's time for business to begin, the results are now indeed very real. So whats to look forward to? Who are my favourites and who's going to qualify? Let's take it from the top.

Austria

Austria opens this years contest with what is a reasonable song that could do with a somewhat better performance. The song has a good studio version that just cannot be picked up live. This probably is not a qualifier given Natalia's performances but still it should be a respectable opener to the show

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Estonia

There are many fans out there for whom this Estonian entry is the one that bet Winne-Pooh. For me this is a dull not outstanding song that has its merits but it is completely lost in the overall scale of the contest, despite a fair draw this probably will end up a near qualifier. This though is very well performed.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Slovenia

Though this song is the first truly up-tempo number that the audience will hear there have been many concerns raised about the vocal abilities behind this song and given that these came through in the jury performance this song now seems dead in the water. However I would still maintain that Hanna has a really great song and I enjoy listening to the studio version of this.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? No

Croatia

Underrated by fans and bookies alike going into this semi-final Croatia looks not just sure of itself but probably the best Balkan song in this years contest. Personally I think this is a great entry and even some of the critics of this song will sure agree that the harmonies are just wonderful. However before rehearsals started I had concerns that this song may struggle in the final as it just does not appear to go anywhere in the song. Though this Klapa entry will surely impress juries, in fact I think it may win the jury vote tonight.

My Grade: 7/10

Qualifier? Yes

Denmark

In my humble opinion this is the best song in this years contest. Everything about it just appeals to me. As a Eurovision fan this song leaves me in the unusual place where I think that though this is my favourite it may not be the best choice for the contest in the long run. Having said that this will sail into the final tonight.

My Grade: 10/10

Qualifier? Yes

Russia

Another song that has it's place booked in the final, but for all the wrong reasons. I see this entry as one which is manufactured and unoriginal. It will do well this year and could possibly win this semi-final, it still is a nice song but I just wish it was stronger.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Netherlands

This is another song that I really hope qualifies just to prove to the Dutch that they can do well at the contest. This song as its faults but overall it makes a nice package that should impress on the night.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

Montenegro

No, just no. I really don't like this song and could think of many others that would have been better choices than a Dubstep entry. I don't get this but given what some influencial people think I'm inclined to see it as a qualifier.

My Grade: 4/10

Qualifier? No

Lithuania 

I like this song to an extent but this is just not one that will appeal to the mass audience and will probably not qualify.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Belarus

It really is a shame that Belarus changed their song and I do not agree with the opinions that if this song was from Turkey we would all be saying that it was a sure qualifier. Given the reports I have heard from Malmo over the last few days I think this would be an unlikely qualifier, but given that we will only be losing six songs this is possible.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Moldova

This is an Eastern European song sung in Romania that will appeal to many people. I see this as a likely qualifier though I think it is a dull song.

My Grade: 6/10

Qualifier? Yes

Ireland

At this point those of you who have followed the blog with me should know that I am not over keen on this Irish entry, in particular I do not think much of the performance. Having said that I am always very pleased to hear the rather positive feedback and given the late draw and the lack of anything really challenging after it, Ireland should have a positive outlook.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Cyprus

No it's not going to qualify, there is much more entertaining songs in this semi-final and more importantly there are better songs that will soak up the jury votes. Not a qualifier in my book though I have enjoyed the song on occasion. 

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? Yes

Belgium

Some people argue this is looking more and more sure of a qualification, I’m starting to agree with them, though this is only due to the running order position of the song. If this was any earlier in the draw I would have written this off. It’s by no means my favourite song this year but I don’t hate it in spite of only hearing it for the first time on the national final.

My Grade: 5/10

Qualifier? No

Serbia

I love the Serbian entry this year either as a studio version or as a live performance. This is a sure qualifier given the number of neighbours they have in this semi-final and the song is quite a nice one. How they do on the final night will largely depend on the running position it gets.

My Grade: 8/10

Qualifier? Yes

So my 12 points are as follows:

12 - Denmark

10 - Ukraine

8 - Netherlands

7- Serbia

6 - Croatia

5 - Slovenia

4 - Moldova

3 - Russia

2 - Austria

1 - Cyprus

But my prediction as to who will qualify is:

Croatia

Cyprus

Netherlands

Denmark

Ukraine

Russia

Moldova

Serbia

Belarus

Ireland

But of course I will be wrong but I do hope you enjoy the show.

Rehearsals Day 2: The Good, The Bad and Ireland

Today saw eight more countries taking to the Eurovision stage to begin rehearsing for the semi-final that takes place in just one weeks time.

The Good
Unlike yesterday where three of the top four on PaddyPower were rehearsing, so today did not bring quite so many shocks. In reality there is no real outstanding song within these eight though I have a soft spot for Serbia.

Serbia, Cyprus, Moldova and Montenegro all had very competent rehearsals today, the strength of Montenegro was probably the only real surprise, it looks like it will seriously challenge for qualification. Seriously though - do they really need the space helmets.

Serbia did try out a couple of different dresses but coming in the last slot in the first semi-final it is a certain qualifier. Personally I love their song and think they could do better than expected overall in the contest.

Moldova and Cyprus both have similar style ballads though Moldova's performance on stage is certainly more elaborate than Cyprus's. Either way they may still struggle to qualify as they are both fairly dull ballads.

The Bad
Bad is a rather strong word in the context of today's rehearsals. However Belarus, Lithuania and Belgium were all songs that may not be sure of a place in the final and today did them no favours. Belarus just does not have the stage presence, Belgium still had trouble with the vocals and Lithuania probably would be fine if it were not for the attempt to use sunglasses for the performance - like, seriously?

However none of the performances today screamed that there was a serious underlying issue to do with the song or singer. There's nothing that could not be improved on for the second round of rehearsals and I will be keeping a close eye on these and watching with anticipation.

Ireland
Finally we come to Ireland. Reaction to the Irish rehearsal today has been very mixed and has ranged from "fine but nothing special" to "dire" and having seen some of the videos online for the performance in my opinion it is a walking, singing disaster. Nothing is right about the performance, absolutely nothing. The background is uninspired throwing a pile of Celtic symbols in the background of what is meant to be a club song. Vocally there are many problems and the choice of dress for the occasion is brutal. Whoever advised them on dress for Eurovision clearly was having a laugh.

Suffice to say I don't think we've a hope of qualifying on this performance and Ireland really need to up their game if they want to stand a chance on Tuesday next.

More tomorrow as the Semi-final 2 rehearsals kick off.

Day 1: Rehearsals As Observed In Dublin

Eurovision 2013 really took it up a gear as rehearsals kicked off in Malmo today. So what did we learn today?

The Stage Looks Amazing
I'm really pleased with the overall stage. I was afraid it would be a bit too much like the 2010 stage when SVT were making some many budget cutbacks.

Semi-Final 1 has a dull start
Despite the EBU's shouting about the importance of not using a random order for the draw SF1 still will have a fairly dull opening of Austria, Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia will only have Slovenia to liven the mood.

There was no major surprises today
This nearly was the biggest surprise of all. It is early days yet, though some surprises may come nothing about any of the songs. Austria and Croatia remain borderline qualifiers though I think that Croatia are still an amazing song. Slovenia was the only country with any real vocal problems though given that this is only the first rehearsal there's a lot of time to iron out problems.

Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all remain some of the strongest songs in the competition and all could conceivably win the contest overall, though I remain unconvinced that Russia will be able to do this, given the votes in that block that will go to Ukraine which has a far more original song.

Of course tomorrow I will be very much looking forward to the Irish rehearsal and will be giving some reaction to it tomorrow.

Ireland - Oh Ireland

Smart followers of this blog may have noticed have noticed that things have been quiet lately. Unfortunately I've been extremely busy lately. Anyhow tomorrow night Ireland decides on their Eurovision entry. Being Irish I've always been very strongly interested to see who my fellow Irishmen and women choose.

Unlike general practice on this blog I've decided not to put up reviews. In all honesty each song has it's merits and these should be acknowledged, together with their faults.

Inchequin probably are the weakest contenders and I'd say have the least chance of going to Eurovision. Even if the public were to vote for this song I'd think the juries will not rank it very highly. I do note though that it did win the poll over on Wiwiblogs. Though not quite the favourite I'd say Amiee Fitzpatrick has the best chance of going to ESC, largely because she only has the only ballad in the contest. Then we come to the three club songs. I sincerely hope that one of these will be sent. They offer Ireland the best chance at Eurovision, largely because they are very different. I hope that the best vocalist will come through and we will judge them based on that.

May the best song win. I'll talk to you on Twitter.

RTÉ Plays It Safe

Today RTÉ premiered the five songs in the 2013 national final. Generally speaking there is four club songs and one ballad involved. I'm somewhat impressed by what RTÉ have come up with. I think that by RTÉ standards this is one of the strongest national finalists we have seen in a number of years. Having said that this is not a miracle - it's an improvement.

As regards individual entries I will post more formal reviews but in the meantime, I think that this is a straight fight between Ryan Dolan and Aimee Fitzpatrick. Ryan probably will benefit from Kasey and Zoe are probably too similar and will cancel each other's vote. As the male Ryan stands a strong chance. Aimee also has a great chance having the only ballad in the competition and that cannot be discounted.

Bookies Pay Day In Ireland

Today, as some of you may have seen RTÉ released the names of the five acts that will be trying to represent  Ireland in this year's Eurovision song contest. Suffice to say that I am somewhat disappointed by the list of names that they have released. It's a good day for the bookies as none of the names released were on Paddy Powers lists before the announcement.

The five acts are: Zoe Alexis Bohorquez; Ryan Dolan; Aimee Fitzpatrick; Incheqin and Kasey.

Nope! I haven't heard of any of the either. All I can say is that Zoe and Aimee are the favourites in early betting. While it is nice to see that it will not be Jedward this year I think I shall hold back my most grating comments until after the Mooney Show, where the songs will be presented tomorrow. Though I have classes during these times, I will be updating the blog and Twitter page later in the evening.

Who's In And Who's Out: UK and Ireland

Speculation is rife that either Kimberley Walsh or Girls Aloud will represent the UK this year at Eurovision. The fact that Fridrik Kempe wrote two of the songs on Kimberley's latest album is fueling these rumours. Personally I'm not convinced that sending Girls Aloud will solves the UK's run of poor performers. Girls Aloud may get a shock when they find out vocals must be live.

Personally I never cared that much who the UK entered to Eurovision as they rarely seem to do well and despite their protests never appear to try. However if Girls Aloud were to be the UK enterant I shall quote Bernard from Yes Minister - "Sun readers don't care who runs the country, as long as she's got big tits"

In Ireland, the rumour mills are in full swing (not that I have ever add fuel to the flames). Donna Taggart, a great traditional Irish singer was considered a possible candidate by both myself and my fellow Irish Eurovision bloggers Eurovision Ireland. [Hint Donna: Don't follow Eurovision blogs in January].

Mandatory Ireland Post

Though I am otherwise engaged tonight following other world events [Four More Years!], I did notice that RTÉ has quietly announced the mentors for Eurosong 2013. They are:

• Mairéad Farrell
• Shay Healy
• Mark McCabe
• Niall Mooney
• Stuart O'Connor

I'll be honest and say that these are hardly the biggest names of the Irish music scene over the last number of years. This also means that RTÉ are sticking with the same strategy that they have employed over the last couple of years. The question is whether this will actually yield anything other than Jedward.

This mentor format has not really brought forward anyone other than Jedward over the last two years. It will be interesting to see if any real talent that may have been suppressed by the treat of Jedward. Only time will tell.....

What's Happening In Ireland?

You may have been closely following the series over on ESCXtra about who Ireland might send next year. This makes RTÉ sound like great strategic Eurovision experts. They're not. I think what is going on in RTÉ at the moment might look a little like this:

Or maybe they're just thinking about Jedward again.....

One Year Online

One year and 307 posts later I'm delighted to be celebrating one year online. What a year it's been. It seems like a long time ago since I first wrote my first post. To look back on the previous year I've compiled a list of different posts which were on the blog over the past year.

June was the strangest month ever to start a Eurovision blog, largely because no one wanted to read about Eurovision but in that time I did suggest 8 changes that the reference group could make to the contest. 6 still have to be implemented, one was continued and one is a little hazy, but hey, I made some impact(?). July and August were as dull as ever with some exceptions such as the end of a Schlager era. October eventually came around and Melodifestivalen kicked off and Netherlands became hosts of JESC 2012. December saw Georgia win JESC 2011 and the start of the Eurovision season with a National Final in Switzerland and Albania decided to send Rona Nishliu to Eurovision, but it wasn't just national finals. December saw me publish what is still my favourite post, a book review of Ewan Spence's It's Cold and There Are Children Singing.

2012 rolled in and national finals came with it. Denmark was my favourite national final in Janurary, having said that I was disappointed with the songs as I felt that the Denmark had a serious chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. I also published a Running Order research paper, though it received a quite reception at the time it was very popular during Eurovision week, in contrast my piece on why Ireland needs Jedward for Eurovision 2012 seems just a little out of place at this point in time. Having said that it was one of the most popular pieces this year.

February 2012 saw the strongest Icelandic national final in years with a great result. Regardless of what may have happened at Eurovision "Never Forget" will always have a special place for me. Though Norway should have sent Bobby Bare and Petter Oien or maybe Plumbo their national final this year leaves me with a lot of really great memories. Jedward too were selected for Ireland. March 2012 saw Engelbert Humperdinck being selected for the UK. Melodifestivalen 2012 came and went and of course this meant that Loreen was choosen for Sweden. I published analysis of Melodifestivalen containing an important line where I did saw Sweden had this years contest.

Everything went quite for April until the contest sprung up in Baku in May. ESCToday was hacked and rehearsals began in earnest. Eurovision week came, semi-final 1 was as predictable as expected, semi-final had some surprises and of course Sweden won the final. A win for Sweden, Loreen, Melodifestivalen, Eurovision and most of all Eurovision fans.

After one year there's a couple of people who I owe thanks to, far to many to mention and if I left you out well, sorry, I can't remember everyone. Special thanks is due to Ewan Spence and the team over on ESCInsight, who were the first people to list the blog. I'd like to mention Samantha Ross and Tobias Larsson who have been great inspirations for Eurovision blogging, and whose blogs are remarkably interesting pieces of work. I'd also like to mention Anthony Granger who is a great inspiration for Eurovision bloggers everywhere, showing us all that no matter how young Eurovision fans can achieve great things. A huge thanks is also due to escXtra and All Kinds Of Everything whose coverage of Eurovision 2012 allowed me to form opinions on this year's contest with information I'd otherwise not have.

Special thanks is also due to you the readers, whose Tweets, Comments and Messages always let me know that people are still reading and interested, which is very important to me.

Sadly despite my best hopes it is highly unlikely that I will be at Eurovision 2013, as my exam timetable is most likely going to clash with Rehearsals week and Eurovision Week. But, I still am looking forward to a second great Eurovision year.

One Week Later....

This time last week I was, like I am now sitting at my desk. The main difference this time is that rather than being in total unsurprise at Sweden winning the contest the after effects of Post-Eurovision Depression [PED] has really started to kick in.

Anyhow, as I have alluded to in some postings this week, I have been inclined towards stepping back from blogging purely because after the whole two weeks that have gone by I'm glad to have some time to myself and not be as driven to blog.

This week I noticed that there was a lot more news than there was the week after last weeks contest, as well as some very interesting reading. So, in bullet points here's the last week in Eurovision:

• Loreen returned home to Sweden after the contest and received a heroes welcome. Her winning song, Euphoria, has gone to number one in many Western European countries, a great achievement for both Loreen and the contest. Here in Ireland Eurovision has made an impressive impact on the charts. Full details of that here.
• 'Tis the season of Opinion Pieces and over on ESCInsight the team have thrown up two really impressive pieces of discussion on accepting responsibly for your defeat and another on what (or indeed who) the UK needs to do to improve at Eurovision.  
• Danny Saucedo [the guy who didn't represent Sweden in this year's Eurovision] has come under fire for his comments he made after Melodifestivalen 2012 about Loreen not being the best choice to send to the contest. He asked for people to give him a break and said that any song could have won for Sweden this year. I think this is in fact a huge insult to Loreen and the quality of her song. Anyway if any song could have won they should have sent Bjorn Ranelid and Sara Li. Give Europe something to stare at. 
• As well as being the season of opinion pieces it is also the season of statistics and this year Eurovision Times are leading the charge. They have an excellent piece on where Sweden got it's points from. They have a far more interesting article on Azerbaijans scoring in the contest. Make of it what you will but I would be interested if the EBU makes any comment on the matter.
• The Scissor Sisters have offered to entry for the UK next year. Personally I don't care who they send but I believe that the public should have a say on either the song or preferably both singer and song.
• Before anyone asks me I don't know when the jury/public results will be released. From the last three years it should be out by the end of June but is liable to come up at any stage. Unlike last year though I don't expect that there will be as many differences of opinion. 
• RTÉ will screen a documentary about Jedward's time in Baku on Thursday evening at 21:30 on RTÉ 2.

So those are the main stories in what has been a rather busy Eurovision week. 

Who Will Win Eurovision 2012?

Tonight sometime after 11pm a years worth a speculation, of wonder and projections will all be shown to be either true or untrue. Will 2012 be another 2009? Or maybe a shocking 2000? Well there still is time for a lot more predicting today. So lets look at how the field is shaping up:

Hypothesis 1 - Most Likely

UK - Engelbert didn't have his greatest performance since he arrived in the jury final and I think that this is falling by the wayside at great speeds. Being the first of five slow songs won't help either. Despite earlier predictions of beating Blue, I suspect that this could end up lower than the UK expected. Prediction: 16th-20th


Hungary - This is a song that I really feel is not up to the required standard of the final. I think this will most likely come last but it might do a little better due to a lack of rock in this years final. Prediction: 21st-26th


Albania - Despite what many might say about this song it has a lot of fans out there and is getting quite a lot of views on YouTube. I think this is going to do a lot better than people expect. However the draw will hold it back but I suspect this will be in the jury top 5 and do well on the public televote. Prediction: 6th-10th


Lithuania - I am happy to see Lithuania in the final, however I do suspect that it got there as the 10th qualifier. I think this is just one of those songs that won't standout on the final night. Prediction: 21st-26th


Bosnia & Herzegovina - This is another song which I think shouldn't have made the final as it is really dull. The other Balkan songs will hoover up the votes so I think that this is going to go nowhere and is another potential last place song. Prediction: 21st-26th


Russia - Russia really have a great piece of entertainment in this entry. I suspect though that they will find it difficult to bring this song over the line when the points come in. I think that while there will be some jury support for this I can't really see it making the dizzying heights of the Top 5. However it is sandwiched between a large number of ballads which helps to make it stand out. Prediction: 6th-10th


Iceland - Despite this being a fan favourite and the fact that I do like it as a song, I think this was the one that was saved by the juries from the first semi-final. It is a strong song, and could score reasonably well with juries. However I think that this just isn't going to get enough public televotes. Prediction: 16th-20th


Cyprus - I was impressed with this song in the first semi-final but given the draw and the opposition it is going to come under a lot of pressure. Ivi didn't have the best jury show [vocally] and I think that this will lose out in a high quality show. Prediction: 21st-26th

France - This was another one which could have gone either way. However I think that this song is just to inaccessible to get in one listen and that in the jury final where Auggun would have needed a lot more votes from she didn't sing well enough. Parts of the song were pretty off-key. Overall I can't see this having a huge impact. Prediction: 21st-26th


Italy - Once again Italy and France are beside each other in the final. But this year I think it is very safe to say that Italy will outscore France. Out of Love is a really great song and deserves recognition. I don't believe that this has the oomph to get it over the line but it does have the strength to score well with juries. Nina has given a very consistent performance since she arrived in Baku, there's no reason to suspect that she won't tonight. I think it is a possible winner but an unlikely one. Prediction: 1st-5th


Estonia - I think this is one that is going to do better than expected. I think juries will like this song over other vocally good songs and I think it won't do awfully on the televote. It's not going to win by any stench of the imagination though. Predictions: 16th-20th


Norway - This is a song that I suspected might do well if it got a strong draw. It didn't but it still could do reasonably well for Norway. Tooji didn't give the best performance last night but it wasn't to bad. I think this might come around 10th with the public but about 15th with juries. Prediction: 11th-15th


Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan have definitely sent the typically host country bland song. However it is the host country and it is Azerbaijan who have a short but good track record. There's something in this song for both  juries and public. Prediction: 6th-10th


Romania - If it wasn't for their 2010 entry I'd say this was going to do really well for Romania. This didn't go perfectly in the jury final but it still will score well. This song has a track record so it will do pretty well. Prediction: 11th-15th


Denmark - Despite this being a favourite of mine I think this is not going to do very well. It is a bit of a neutral entry but has some potential. Prediction: 16th-20th


Greece - Tonight is going to be a real test of the strength of the Greek vote. There will be a good number of diaspora votes but I still think this won't get the jury support that it needs. This might well be the first Greek song out of the top 10, but then again di dn't we all say that last year? Prediction: 11th-15th


Sweden - Despite one small mistake in the jury final I think that this is the one to beat. I think that the extra votes that it got at Melodifestivalen, the fact it has been a success in Norway, Finland and Greece shows that it is neither just a fan favourite nor a piece of Swedish music that will only score well in Scandinavia. However if this doesn't win it could come further down the scoreboard. Prediction: 1st-5th


Turkey - After shockingly missing the final last year Turkey are back in a big way, I think that while some think that this is a poor enough song I actually think that it is fairly strong [I still don't like it]. This also works really well on stage. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both very able to score well when both have strong songs and I think that this year will be no different. Prediction: 2nd-5th


Spain - I'm not Spanish but unlike most people I think that this is a really, really good song and the vocal performance is simply jaw dropping. I think this could win the jury vote [marginally] but I think while it is a contender to do that anything is possible tonight so I think it might not do all that well as I'm unsure what the public will make of it. Prediction: 6th-10th


Germany - I think that Germany have come up with a song that might do better if it was only the northwest of Europe voting. I also wonder if Germany is going to be able to override their political image tonight. I know they did this in 2010 but I'm not convinced that they can do so tonight. Juries might well give this a couple of extra points  but I don't see it as the dark horse that everyone else seems to. Prediction: 6th-10th


Malta - Malta were a surprise qualifier in my books but now they have a great draw which might help them, especially when they are surrounded by ballads. I suspect though that this scrapped into te final and I think they should be happy with that. However it is a strong song, compared to those around it so it might get a few more votes. Prediction: 11th-15th


FYR Macedonia - Macedonia have quite a strong song relative to the position in the draw. Kaliopi is one of the more well-known Balkan singers and should score well across the region. She has excellent vocals and is another potential jury winner. But I suspect that the song may not have huge appeal outside of the Balkans. Prediction: 11th-15th


Ireland - I can only say that I'm really proud of Jedward and feel that they are great ambassadors for Ireland. I wish them the best of luck tonight. This was good in the jury final and they have scored well with juries before. The big question is can they overcome Eastern Europe? Last year nearly all the points they got came from Western Europe so if they can't they'll most likely not score as well. But I suspect that they may break Eastern Europe and do pretty well. Prediction: 1st-5th


Serbia - Despite this being third favourite I'm not convinced that this song is fresh enough to be a winner. If Lane Moje could not do it in 2004, when Balkan Ballads were popular I find it difficult to believe that a less exciting copy of the song can beat it in 2012. Having FYR Macedonia doesn't help Zeljko's chances either. Prediction: 1st-5th

Ukraine - Ukraine did well in the draw, drawing the well regarded second last slot. Ukraine have a very strong singer with a not-so-strong song. It will pick up a couple of undecided votes in the coming so late. Prediction: 6th-10th


Moldova - This is a song I feel will be lost at the end. After a rake of strong songs this almost pales in comparision. Pasha is a great performer and singer but there is little in this to really bring in a lot of votes. Prediction: 16th-20th


So it's time to get off of the fence. I think that the Top 5 will look like this:

1. Sweden

2. Italy

3. Turkey

4. Ireland

5. Serbia

That's really all that can be said. I wish everyone good luck tonight. It's in the hands of the juries and the public now. May the best song win.

My Favourites!

After a minimum of two months listening to all of these songs suddenly you have to consider all of them together and now that I have seen them all performed live we can start to see just which songs are in my Top 10 for 2012.

This year as with any is difficult to work out exactly which are my favourites. But here we go, (with reasons why). Ireland is always excluded from my favourites due to bias towards our entry which I think you should all vote for and bring the contest to Dublin. As you can see a tiny amount of bias is coming through. So in no particular order my top 10 are:


Sweden - Well it's been one of my favourites since it was picked. I just love this and I think it would be a deserving winner. I'm not convinced that the song was performed as well as it could have been in the semi-final but maybe that's me being picky though. 


Estonia - Ott may not have the best song in the competition but his vocal performance is strong. It is a great relaxing song and came across well in the semi-final. I think this did well in the semi and could score well off the juries in the final.


Romania - Since the rehearsals started I have gone from thinking that this is OK to thinking that it is fairly flat to being one of the most fun entries this year. The song comes across really well and this is hugely thanks to a strong performance from Mandinga. 


UK - Despite some reservations about Engelbert going to Eurovision for the UK I still think that the song he as produced is really really good and is a great one to listen to. Engelbert has come up well in the rehearsals and it should be good on the night.

Spain - Whatever people might say about Spain I think that this is just an outstanding song. It's not a great one for the MP3 player but it is a truely amazing song live. I know how the Spanish fans feel about this entry and I'm not quite sure that it is a winner, but it is a strong song. 

Italy - Of course as second/third/fouth [depends on the bookmaker] favourites they have a really strong song and a really good singer to pull it off. Italy did well last but I don't expect that they will break last years results.  
Largely because it's to safe to do really well. It doesn't have the risk of Raphael last year.


Russia - One of the most discussed songs this year had fallen in my estimation during the run up to the rehearsals. However on Tuesday night I though that this was stunning. Not my favourite and I don't think that it is a winner but I still think that it has hit potential. 


Denmark - I accept that not everyone loves this song. Despite the cute and cuddly image this has come through a seriously tough DMGP and continues to divide fans. The jury rehearsal of this was strong. I don't think it is a winner but it isn't going to come last. Personally it was my favourite in the first semi-final, it has fallen a bit since then but it still is really great. 


Iceland - I've had a soft spot for this song as have many fans. I'm not convinced that this is as good as some people make out based on the semi-final performance and YouTube numbers. I recognise it as a really great song and I acknowledge that.


Albania - This is another song that was simply outstanding in the semi-final. It's a simple performance of a really complex song. Well done Albania.


You're still reading? Great. You skipped down here without reading the above? That's not so good but I'll survive. So I would place these songs in the following order.

12. Sweden

10. Albania

8. UK

7. Italy

6. Spain

5. Iceland

4. Denmark

3. Romania

2. Estonia

1. Russia

I'll put up real predictions either tonight or tomorrow morning once the jury final is over.

OMG That Was Just A Bit Close!

So tonight from the Crystal Hall the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest was held. Ten Qualifiers made it through to the final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. They are (in order revealed).

1. Romania

2. Moldova

3. Iceland

4. Hungary 

5. Denmark

6. Albania

7. Cyprus

8. Greece

9. Russia

10. Ireland

This means that Montenegro, Latvia, Switzerland, Belgium, Israel, Finland, Austria and San Marino. 

This blog post will be updated as more information comes in and I compose my thoughts. We are awaiting the winners press conference and the draw for the final running order.

Presenters:
The presenters tonight were pretty poor and probably gave the lowest standard of presenting in recent years.

No Surprises: 
Russia, Ireland and Romania were all seen as sure qualifiers. I was impressed with Russia's performance but please pardon my bias, Ireland had a really strong performance but I would say that Jedward did a really good performance.

Denmark and Iceland were also both seen as qualifiers. Denmark won got my vote simply because as I had said before, Denmark still is a stand out entry for me. Iceland was my second favourite. I was somewhat less impressed with the general performance on actually on my TV but I was still very happy with the overall package.

Albania was a little more surprising than the above entries. I've previously mentioned that I suspect that they won the jury vote being vocally really really strong. Greece was a not surprise, though it would be difficult to see them not making the final no matter what they send.

Cyprus was surprising for me, as I didn't expect that both Cyprus and Greece would get through given the similarity of their songs, Ivi also had a fairly poor jury rehearsal. But the song did look good on stage and I was impressed. Moldova though was seen as a bit of an outsider for many but some [like me] did see it as a qualifier. It had a strong vocal for the song so I suspect that it did well with both the jury and the public as it was a lot of fun.

The big surprise really was Hungary, which was the point where I started to worry about our chances. They're song really did nothing for me during the show.

The Draw
The starting positions of each of the following countries is as follows:

Romania - #14

Moldova - #26

Iceland - #7

Hungary - #2

Denmark - #15

Albania - #3

Cyprus - #8

Greece - #16

Russia - #6

Ireland - #23

Running Order Analysis

So far this is shaping up to be an interesting draw. The show will have a dull enough start with UK, Hungary and Albania opening. The UK should be happy enough with this. Hungary will struggle to survive in slot number two - the death slot. So far the songs in the middle of the show should complement each other fairly well.  Azerbaijan is in slot 13 then Romania in #14, Denmark in slot #15 and Greece in slot #16. Cyprus might not be over happy with the draw and I suspect that they will be in the 20th-26th position in the final. Particularly as it is followed by France and Italy, even though Ivi's song is different to Cyprus I still think it is not a good draw for them. Russia also won't be too pleased with their draw but at they are followed by Iceland who will be a complete change from the Russian grannies. 

Ireland should be very pleased with their draw, now while some have jumped the gun just a little, I would not say that this is a pretty good omen for Ireland and they should be able to launch a successful entry from this position. Really if we were going to do very well a couple more things [such as the qualifiers from semi-final 2] will impact on that. We just don't have the information yet. Probability though would say that it is unlikely that Ireland will get all of these favorable conditions together. If you want more info on the importance of the running order we did a theoretical paper earlier this year which can be found here. 

And one more thing.....

My family who was watching Eurovision with me really liked the clip played of the German entry. I think this could be a dark horse but until Thursday evening I'm still going with Sweden as the most likely winner.

Eurovision Semi-Final 1 - For Non Eurovision Super-fans

So today sees the first real tangible signs of Eurovision 2012 with the first live show. While most of my posts are aimed at fans of the contest who follow ESC either all year round or for the national final seasons this one is aimed that those for whom Eurovision is only an annual event.

What's on tonight?
Tonight is the first semi-final, 18 countries from around Europe will compete for 10 spaces in the final, which will contain ten songs from semi-final 1, ten for semi-final 2 and six automatic qualifiers. Jedward will be competing for Ireland tonight. The second semi-final is on Thursday and the final is on Saturday.

Who votes tonight?
A 50/50 combination of expert jury votes and public televotes will decide the ten qualifiers.

What can we expect from juries?
Juries tend to be more conservative in their voting and do support countries that have stronger vocal performances. However they also do recognize a strong song when they see it.

When do Juries vote?
Contrary to what many people believe the juries vote based on the video tapes of the second rehearsal, which is done 24 hours in advance of the final. Today juries across Europe will decide their votes in the morning/early afternoon of the main event.


Does the winner of the semi-final matter?
The winner of the semi-final is not announced until after the final. While a song that wants to win Eurovision probably should win tonight, many songs that have won Eurovision recently came second or even third in their semi-final. The last person to win the semi-final and the final was Alexander Rybak [Norway] in 2009. Last year Greece won their semi-final but only came seventh overall. So no, winning is not essential tonight.

What performances should I be looking forward to tonight?
Montenegro have brought us one of the most bizarre songs ever to grace the stage. The song is called Euro-Nuero and is actually a massive anti-EU song. But most will not understand it, however you also can look forward to the Euro-Nuero monetary break dance.

For those who actually believe that Eurovision can actually produce a couple of hits Iceland is definitely one to watch. Greta Sálome & Jonsi have a big dramatic Icelandic ballad.

Things might seem to be getting a little boring but Romania are sixth up and should fix that with their song "Zaleilah". Hetrosexual males may want to watch for their lead singer.

San Marino have a really catchy but strange song about Social Networks. Once she starts talking about Cybersex you might want to note that she is 37.

Russia have the so called "Russian Grannies" coming to perform their song Party For Everybody. These are performers of various ages ranging from 47-76. They are really cute and definitely worth a watch.  They are one of the favourites to win the whole contest.

Austria have sent their song Woki Mit Deim Popo [shake your ass] which is really entertaining.

Finally Ireland have Jedward and their massive fountain to try and convince Europe to vote for them. Jedward are widely seen as likely qualifiers tonight.

What A Week!

So as the technical rehearsals draw to a close we now have had a really fun week so I'm going to use this post to look back on that as well as to tell you my top 10 for semi-final 1 and to look to the week ahead.

Rehearsals Week 2012
Sunday (last week) saw the beginning of the rehearsals with the first half of semi-final 1 starting. The big winners here were Iceland and Romania who both went from being likely to definite qualifiers. Belgium also perked themselves up as possible qualifiers. There was one car crash which was Greece who raised a couple of eyebrows with their performance, particularly vocals.

Monday saw people actually consider that there was a mild chance that San Marino could qualify. Denmark and Russia both gave us performances that leads me to believe either could win the first semi-final. Moldova seems to have come across well on stage and Pasha showed us he had some vocals. Ireland managed to underwhelm everyone but everyone still thinks that it is sailing through to the final. Austria was Monday's car crash.

Tuesday saw the rise of Macedonia and the fall of Bulgaria but was by far the dullest day we had.

Wednesday was Sweden's day as their march to victory began. Loreen certainly has her critic's though and there is certainly an anti-Sweden vibe coming through from Baku. It's in many blogs but it seems especially prevalent in the press reports from Baku. Other highlights included Norway's off key rehearsal [well if your like me and don't like Tooji]. Bosina & Herzegovina also fell in many peoples expectations.

Thursday and Friday saw second rehearsals begin. Austria and b redeemed themselves a little, and Ireland got the fountain working. Russia proved that everyone still loves the Grannies and Greece showed they can make marginal improvements to a vocal performance.

Saturday and Sunday saw Sweden take to the stage and finally nail the performance [depending on whether you think she mumbles the song or not]. Norway also managed to get the vocal performance back together. The Big 5 and Azerbaijan also showed us that they are able to take the lead at Eurovision. Italy showed they might not have cared about Eurovision but that they can still do there best to try to win it. Italy now in moved as a strong favourite, probably second to Loreen. Germany showed that Stefan Raab can still produce a good entry and Germany has exceeded expectations to become one of the potential winners of the contest. The UK left us all a bit worried after the first rehearsal but we all calmed down a bit after the second rehearsal. Clearly Engelbert can pull this off live.

My Top 10 [Semi-Final 1]
So that was rehearsal week, but how do the songs stand now? Well I will publish my thoughts on the semi-final 1 qualifiers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning after I get reports for the dress rehearsals and more importantly the jury final. But for now my Top 10 favourites [and my votes are]:

• 12 points - Denmark
• 10 points - Iceland 
• 8 points - Finland
• 7 points - Austria
• 6 points - Romania 
• 5 points - Russia
• 4 points - Belgium
• 3 points - Albania 
• 2 points - San Marino 
• 1 point - Greece

So that's my Top 10 I expect some of you might disagree with it but unfortunately you cannot change my music tastes.

Tomorrow

Though the will be no live shows tomorrow, it is an important day. At 3pm CET the first full run through of the dress rehearsal will begin and, more importantly, at 9pm CET tomorrow evening the jury final will take place. I will have a blog post assessing what happened in that. See you all tomorrow.

Rehearsals: Day 6: Friday: Second Rehearsals

Once again we are cutting through songs at speed today so we'll keep this fairly brief. Today we have the second part of semi-final one and the songs from semi-final two that we heard on Tuesday.

Russia - Nothing huge has changed, but I've heard that they brought meat pies for the press today. Apparently one of the grannies was off key but all in all this is doing well. People (the press) really seem to love this.

Hungary - It hasn't changed much since the first rehearsal. It seems a little messy on stage but all in all this is shaping up to be a little mediocre.

Austria - After a very disappointing rehearsal on Monday, this is shaping up to be a great performance on account of today's rehearsal. According to those in Baku the camera work has greatly improved. As I have previously mentioned this really needs to be live with a crowd to make it stand out.

Moldova - This was a stand out entry in the first rehearsals and today they seem to have been able to hold that high standard. This is probably going to qualify but being sandwiched between the Trackshittaz and Jedward won't make that easy.

Ireland - Vocally today saw an improvement and more importantly the fountain is now going up to the full height. People are talking about Jedward jumping into it and I think that is definitely going to be the case, if you look at the rehearsal video Jedward's dancing does seem to get very disjointed towards the end. i.e. something is going to happen here and they're just filling in these spots with some dancing until they do it live.

Serbia - Somewhat better than the first rehearsal. No big changes to report though.

Macedonia - this song is dividing people but the performance is good enough to unite them again. This is an on the fence qualifier but today the performance was as good as ever.

Netherlands - This is a very joyful entry and has improved a lot since the first rehearsal, this is going to be a contender to qualify. The blue dress is not the most suitable particularly when she is wear the American Indian headdress.

Malta - Everything seems to be working well on stage but despite what the Eurovision press are saying I don't think of this as a qualifier. Once again the shadows in a background are really effective and should draw a few extra people into the performance.

Belarus - Belarus have got this performance down to a fine art and everything is now working well. The movements of the guitarists is really interesting and looks pretty cool even on the rehearsal tapes.

Portugal - This has really improved since the last rehearsal but it could still struggle to qualify. The dress that Filipa wore today might not be her one for the semi-final [I'd go back to the red one from the national final].

Ukraine - Since the first rehearsal Ukraine have done their best to change the performance and it does look a lot less messy. The dancers are being used less and I believe that the whole think looks well on stage, maybe with the exception of the way they use the four screens at the end.

Bulgaria - This has been a bit disappointing since the start. Without a doubt Sofia is going to be vocally very strong. But still this is all that is working in this entry. The backdrop is more likely to cause epileptic fits than votes at this stage.

Reaction To Rehearsals: Day 2: Part 2 Russia - Ireland

So unfortunately due to other commitments I missed most of the last ten hours meaning that I have missed a lot of rehearsal time. Anyhow here is a quick look at the last five rehearsals which I managed to miss.

Russia - Rehearsal Video
This has been flagged as one of the most interesting performances to watch in this years contest. Personally I never had put Russia down as a potential winner but after today's performance this has come roaring into the competition [albeit on a Zimmer frame]. This was vocally spot on and the performance is effective but still fairly simple relatively speaking.

Hungary - Rehearsal Video
Hungary today have produced a credible vocal performance which was a huge concern in the national final. The general staging is petty good but at the same time I think that this might be a bit dull to qualify.

Austria - Rehearsal Video
This was very much as expected. For me this is one of the strongest songs in the contest this year but many people are somewhat disappointed with the general the rehearsals today. They feel that the staging is too messy for the song. I really do not agree with them but I am disappointed with the lack of a tractor onstage. I think that one of Trackshittaz strengths is that they are not you common or garden rap duo and I think they should play that up a bit.

Moldova - Rehearsal Video
Moldova had been in doubt in up until today's rehearsal as being unfortunately sandwiched between Austria and Ireland in what would have to be the maddest end to a semi-final yet. But today Moldova really is standing up vocally and in general the song is looking like a very strong one in this semi-final.

Ireland - Rehearsal Video 
Ireland, well their is less to talk about than I had hoped but all the same this is still working really well onstage but I am going to join many other bloggers in saying that this needs something extra onstage to really lift it. Jedward are about as good as they can be vocally, however there appear to have been some mixing problems with the backing vocals. All the same though Ireland look like near certain qualifiers at this point in time.

My Thoughts On Our Own Entry

We have just a small number of entries left to review for Eurovision 2012. This means though that we have come  my own country, home to green hills and leprechauns and Jedward. I might say though that despite all I say here I am not a real Jedward fan, I'm the bog standard hetrosexual Irish male (think farming type). But I do love it when Jedward come to Eurovision.....

Once again Ireland has decided to send the dynamic duo/the Haribo boys to Eurovision. Having been one of the most successful acts that Ireland has sent to the contest in the past ten years as well as the extra revenue that it  brought in for RTÉ it was decided that Jedward should return to the contest. Surprisingly Ireland held a national final which in retrospect seemed completely unnecessary, as many serious Irish acts declared from the outset that they were not going to go up against Jedward.

Jedward's song Waterline, is a very interesting one. More because it is not exactly the style that we have come to expect from Jedward. This is a far cry from Lipstick. Equally though I have argued for them since well before January and I have no interest in stopping now. The song Waterline may not have played as well with Eurovision fans as may be expected. I think this song is far more what we would expect from something like One Direction or those other Boybands that I know absolutely nothing about. (I really mean that). I think though that Jedwards song last year did require a little listening and may have been a bit to hard to get into on the first go. Waterline is much better at catering for this. It probably will attract votes from non-Jedward fans too.

I really cannot tell how this will play with the juries. Last year Jedward bet off stiff competition to come 6th with the juries. It is difficult to fully understand what it is about Jedward that got them such a score and though it is impressive, I'm not entirely sure as to how they will repeat that. The other problem is that I'm slightly unnerved by the fact both of my parents saw it on the Late Late Show last Friday and they both thought that it was a good song. While this may sound like a good thing my parents are both getting on in their lives and really the music that they are into is not Jedwards music.

Having said all that all I am saying is I don't think that this is my absolute favourite in the contest this year and I also do not think that it is a perfect entry. Like entries it has faults. However these faults should be somewhat offset by the great running position that Ireland got in this years contest. Last is a great place to be singing from.

Verdict: I could go on and on but I am sure that I will have a lot more to say about Jedward this evening after they have their rehearsals and I see how they are going on stage. Personally speaking Jedward at Eurovision are a guilty pleasure for me. They are almost disestablishmentratrian in the way they roll through Eurovision and I think they are excellent ambassadors for Ireland. The very best of luck to them.

Grade:  As it is my own country I will not given them a grade.