Saturday, May 26, 2012

Who Will Win Eurovision 2012?

Tonight sometime after 11pm a years worth a speculation, of wonder and projections will all be shown to be either true or untrue. Will 2012 be another 2009? Or maybe a shocking 2000? Well there still is time for a lot more predicting today. So lets look at how the field is shaping up:

Hypothesis 1 - Most Likely

UK - Engelbert didn't have his greatest performance since he arrived in the jury final and I think that this is falling by the wayside at great speeds. Being the first of five slow songs won't help either. Despite earlier predictions of beating Blue, I suspect that this could end up lower than the UK expected. Prediction: 16th-20th

Hungary - This is a song that I really feel is not up to the required standard of the final. I think this will most likely come last but it might do a little better due to a lack of rock in this years final. Prediction: 21st-26th

Albania - Despite what many might say about this song it has a lot of fans out there and is getting quite a lot of views on YouTube. I think this is going to do a lot better than people expect. However the draw will hold it back but I suspect this will be in the jury top 5 and do well on the public televote. Prediction: 6th-10th

Lithuania - I am happy to see Lithuania in the final, however I do suspect that it got there as the 10th qualifier. I think this is just one of those songs that won't standout on the final night. Prediction: 21st-26th

Bosnia & Herzegovina - This is another song which I think shouldn't have made the final as it is really dull. The other Balkan songs will hoover up the votes so I think that this is going to go nowhere and is another potential last place song. Prediction: 21st-26th

Russia - Russia really have a great piece of entertainment in this entry. I suspect though that they will find it difficult to bring this song over the line when the points come in. I think that while there will be some jury support for this I can't really see it making the dizzying heights of the Top 5. However it is sandwiched between a large number of ballads which helps to make it stand out. Prediction: 6th-10th

Iceland - Despite this being a fan favourite and the fact that I do like it as a song, I think this was the one that was saved by the juries from the first semi-final. It is a strong song, and could score reasonably well with juries. However I think that this just isn't going to get enough public televotes. Prediction: 16th-20th

Cyprus - I was impressed with this song in the first semi-final but given the draw and the opposition it is going to come under a lot of pressure. Ivi didn't have the best jury show [vocally] and I think that this will lose out in a high quality show. Prediction: 21st-26th

France - This was another one which could have gone either way. However I think that this song is just to inaccessible to get in one listen and that in the jury final where Auggun would have needed a lot more votes from she didn't sing well enough. Parts of the song were pretty off-key. Overall I can't see this having a huge impact. Prediction: 21st-26th

Italy - Once again Italy and France are beside each other in the final. But this year I think it is very safe to say that Italy will outscore France. Out of Love is a really great song and deserves recognition. I don't believe that this has the oomph to get it over the line but it does have the strength to score well with juries. Nina has given a very consistent performance since she arrived in Baku, there's no reason to suspect that she won't tonight. I think it is a possible winner but an unlikely one. Prediction: 1st-5th

Estonia - I think this is one that is going to do better than expected. I think juries will like this song over other vocally good songs and I think it won't do awfully on the televote. It's not going to win by any stench of the imagination though. Predictions: 16th-20th

Norway - This is a song that I suspected might do well if it got a strong draw. It didn't but it still could do reasonably well for Norway. Tooji didn't give the best performance last night but it wasn't to bad. I think this might come around 10th with the public but about 15th with juries. Prediction: 11th-15th

Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan have definitely sent the typically host country bland song. However it is the host country and it is Azerbaijan who have a short but good track record. There's something in this song for both  juries and public. Prediction: 6th-10th

Romania - If it wasn't for their 2010 entry I'd say this was going to do really well for Romania. This didn't go perfectly in the jury final but it still will score well. This song has a track record so it will do pretty well. Prediction: 11th-15th

Denmark - Despite this being a favourite of mine I think this is not going to do very well. It is a bit of a neutral entry but has some potential. Prediction: 16th-20th

Greece - Tonight is going to be a real test of the strength of the Greek vote. There will be a good number of diaspora votes but I still think this won't get the jury support that it needs. This might well be the first Greek song out of the top 10, but then again di dn't we all say that last year? Prediction: 11th-15th

Sweden - Despite one small mistake in the jury final I think that this is the one to beat. I think that the extra votes that it got at Melodifestivalen, the fact it has been a success in Norway, Finland and Greece shows that it is neither just a fan favourite nor a piece of Swedish music that will only score well in Scandinavia. However if this doesn't win it could come further down the scoreboard. Prediction: 1st-5th

Turkey - After shockingly missing the final last year Turkey are back in a big way, I think that while some think that this is a poor enough song I actually think that it is fairly strong [I still don't like it]. This also works really well on stage. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both very able to score well when both have strong songs and I think that this year will be no different. Prediction: 2nd-5th

Spain - I'm not Spanish but unlike most people I think that this is a really, really good song and the vocal performance is simply jaw dropping. I think this could win the jury vote [marginally] but I think while it is a contender to do that anything is possible tonight so I think it might not do all that well as I'm unsure what the public will make of it. Prediction: 6th-10th

Germany - I think that Germany have come up with a song that might do better if it was only the northwest of Europe voting. I also wonder if Germany is going to be able to override their political image tonight. I know they did this in 2010 but I'm not convinced that they can do so tonight. Juries might well give this a couple of extra points  but I don't see it as the dark horse that everyone else seems to. Prediction: 6th-10th

Malta - Malta were a surprise qualifier in my books but now they have a great draw which might help them, especially when they are surrounded by ballads. I suspect though that this scrapped into te final and I think they should be happy with that. However it is a strong song, compared to those around it so it might get a few more votes. Prediction: 11th-15th

FYR Macedonia - Macedonia have quite a strong song relative to the position in the draw. Kaliopi is one of the more well-known Balkan singers and should score well across the region. She has excellent vocals and is another potential jury winner. But I suspect that the song may not have huge appeal outside of the Balkans. Prediction: 11th-15th

Ireland - I can only say that I'm really proud of Jedward and feel that they are great ambassadors for Ireland. I wish them the best of luck tonight. This was good in the jury final and they have scored well with juries before. The big question is can they overcome Eastern Europe? Last year nearly all the points they got came from Western Europe so if they can't they'll most likely not score as well. But I suspect that they may break Eastern Europe and do pretty well. Prediction: 1st-5th

Serbia - Despite this being third favourite I'm not convinced that this song is fresh enough to be a winner. If Lane Moje could not do it in 2004, when Balkan Ballads were popular I find it difficult to believe that a less exciting copy of the song can beat it in 2012. Having FYR Macedonia doesn't help Zeljko's chances either. Prediction: 1st-5th

Ukraine - Ukraine did well in the draw, drawing the well regarded second last slot. Ukraine have a very strong singer with a not-so-strong song. It will pick up a couple of undecided votes in the coming so late. Prediction: 6th-10th

Moldova - This is a song I feel will be lost at the end. After a rake of strong songs this almost pales in comparision. Pasha is a great performer and singer but there is little in this to really bring in a lot of votes. Prediction: 16th-20th

So it's time to get off of the fence. I think that the Top 5 will look like this:
1. Sweden
2. Italy
3. Turkey
4. Ireland
5. Serbia

That's really all that can be said. I wish everyone good luck tonight. It's in the hands of the juries and the public now. May the best song win.

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