Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Another Look At The Betting Odds

In the last two weeks we have looked at the odds for Eurovision 2012 in the semi-finals but today we will now look at the odds overall. I'm using PaddyPower for this because they are fairly large (and accurate) and oddschecker is not always accurate. 

Unsurprisingly Sweden is up front by a long chalk. 2.25/1 is the odds, I'm holding out til rehersals until I put a bet on Sweden as I suspect the odds will start to widen at that point. In second are Russia and Italy on 7/1, which is more like the kind of odds I'd expect at this point of the year. I think both of these entries are risky and could conceivably drop much lower than this on the night. They'll still be on the left of the scoreboard though. Serbia is a far safer bet, and aside from Sweden the only country that I am pretty sure will be in the top 10. PaddyPower allows you to bet each way on four places. I'm not sure that Serbia will be one of these. 

Then we move out a little to 14/1 in here we have: Denmark, UK and Ireland. There can be little surprise that Ireland is doing well with an Irish bookmaker. Denmark is about right at 14/1, I think they might not break last years 5th place but top 10 is well within the reach of Soluna Samay. The UK might be a little overhyped given the risk could be associated with Engelbert's performance but also [far more importantly], the UK has a fairly poor running order position.

Next we come to Spain on 18/1 which is no surprise given that Pastora Soler is an excellent performer with a pretty strong song. I actually think that the odds are a poor reflection of this song, I don't expect that it will rip forward into the top 3, but given the songs strength and good running order, I'd say that top 10 should be with in reach. At 20/1 is Germany, which I cannot see making the Top 10 let alone winning and Turkey. Turkey is interesting because reports from Netherlands Eurovision party were not good, but I will await further reports from Baku before I decide what to make of it.

Iceland is at 22/1, which some might argue is a good bet, then Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Norway are at 25/1. Norway might also be a good bet, Romania is pretty accurate but Greece and Cyprus look a bit a ahead of themselves, particularly Cyprus. Then there is a substantial gap to Azerbaijan at 40/1. To be honest it's a poor song but Azerbaijan are Azerbaijan and they will leave a mark on the scoreboard no matter what. Being the hosts will also help. Then at 50/1 are Slovenia, Estonia and Netherlands. Netherlands are the odd men out here. I think this might be caused by a couple of fans putting on money but we shall see.

I shall refrain from going beyond here as to do so would be pointless, suffice to say I don't think that the others have much of a fighting chance.

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