And The Winner of Eurovision 2013 Is?

The day of the Eurovision Final has finally dawned. 26 countries prepare to do battle in an exciting show from Malmo tonight. But who will emerge the winner? Let's take a look at the finalist tonight.

France
France this year have a nice song but has some have mentioned no one has this down in their top 10. It is a fairly dull song that could go down well with the juries and manage to get to the top of the right hand side of the scoreboard or it could slide well down it.
My Grade: 3/10
Prediction: 21st-26th

Lithuania
Lithuania were certainly the most surprising country to make the final this year. The song is one which I thought would get knocked out in the semi-finals and don't see it going to far tonight.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 21st-26th

Moldova
Moldova are always very strong at Eurovision and this year is no different. Aliona is a competent singer and she should do fairly well with the juries tonight. However as she has the third dull song in the opening part of the show I don't think the public are going to support this song enough.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 13th-16th

Finland
I was sickened by the fact I did not put a bet on this to win the semi-final. It was 25/1 on PaddyPower and even an each way bet would have helped the kitty in my mind. I think that this is one of the best songs in this years contest and I think that it may bode well in western Europe. Hard to say how it will go down in the east. I would have said this was certainly going to go top 10 but so many of Finland's neighbours are strong this year that it is hard to say.
My Grade: 8.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th

Spain
A dull song which is only helped by a nice instrumental at the start this is a strong contender for last place in the contest this year. Sandwiched between Finland and Belgium and with so few neighbours this year I can't see this going far.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 21st-26th

Belgium
Another song that I was surprised to see go through to the final this year. Roberto is certainly way above my expectations of him though they were low enough to begin with. This should do alright for Belgium but it will not be a repeat of 2010. Personally I like the studio version of the song, but not the live one that much.
My Grade: 5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th

Estonia
Deserving of a place in the final, Estonia have a really lovely song this year that I completely fell for during the semi-finals. They're not going to repeat last year, particularly if the northern countries are strong, but they do deserve credit where it is due. Hopefully this will not be at the end of the scoreboard tonight.
My Grade: 5.5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th

Belarus
I didn't really take to the new song that Belarus choose after the Rhythm of Love but I really didn't like the performance of the song on Tuesday night. There's far to much going on during the song and it just is not working for me. However I expect that the neighbour of Belarus will ensure this will not do to badly.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Prediction: 13th-16th

Malta
I don't think there is anyone who really does not like this song. It is wonderful and bouncy and Gianluca is just so happy when he performs it that it deserves to do well. While their running order position will not help them the introduction of drag back voting this year should help them a lot. I really like the song too and wish them the best of luck.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 9th-12th

Russia
Clinical as ever I was really impressed by Russia's semi-final performance and even my good mother thought that this was the best song in semi-final 1. Certainly it is a dark horse on paper, but the poor running order position (followed by Cascada) means that this will at best make 5th place. Which Russia would probably still be happy with.
My Grade: 6.5/10
Prediction: 5th-8th

Germany
What can we say? One word - Cascada. This has all the right ingredients for another German win but I'm not entirely sure how it will fair on the night. It's not the best song that Cascada could have brought to the contest but it is a definite contender for a win.
My Grade: 8/10
Prediction: 1st-4th

Armenia
Armenia did a great performance on the semi-final of this song, certainly it was enough to send Albania home on Thursday and being the only rock song in the final will also play well. Still it is not a great song overall and I could see this quietly move into the top 10. But it could flop too.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th

The Netherlands
Doing amazingly well to be in the final Netherlands do need to do well tonight to convince the Dutch public they still can do well in the contest. Singing before Romania and just after an ad break will do them no favours but I still think they can manage. I like this song and hope Anouk can do well tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 17th-20th

Romania
This one is really causing me a headache at the moment. There is no reason why this should be allowed to do well yet, if the juries strictly follow their criteria then this is a strong contender. But I still think the shock factor of this song will put some off from voting for it.
My Grade: 2/10
Prediction: 13th-16th

United Kingdom
The internal selection, the fact that they are one of the Big 5 and Engelbert's performance last year really makes it very hard to say how this song will go down. However it is Bonny Tyler and I don't think she will go down without a fight. I think she has a great song and is sure to pick up a few points here and there to lift them out of the bottom of the table.
My Grade: 7.5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th

Sweden
In my humble opinion Sweden  have by far and away the most underrated song in this years contest. Though people in Sweden seem to think that this is a weak effort and will not go down well I think it is a strong song that may do well.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 5th-8th

Hungary
Another surprise to make the final and another song which is a strong contender for last place. I think it is ok but ok just doesn't cut it for the final.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 21st-26th

Denmark
It's favourite, it's my favourite and at this point it looks like in 12 hours time the Eurovision Song Contest will cross the bridge to Copenhagan. The longer this drags out the less sure I am that Denmark are going to win this by a country mile. However someone stopped the Balkans from trading neighbourly points and if it was Denmark they are going to go big.
My Grade: 10/10
Prediction: 1st-4th

Iceland
This is another really strong entry from Iceland this year and one which I expect will not do well on the night. If Greta and Jonsi could not do better than 19th then this is one which sadly will be at the end of the scoreboard tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 21st-26th

Azerbaijan
Another contender for the win, their song is weak but the performance of Hold Me is very interesting and does wonderfully distract from the song. This might convincably win but I really hope that it doesn't. I don't think that the Eurovision brand was helped by bringing the contest to Baku last year.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 1st-4th

Greece
Greece is certainly in a much stronger position for the win this year given that there are no Balkans in the final. However Greece has entered with stronger songs that this one  and though I would like to see it outside of the top 10, there will be no stopping this song's success now.
My Grade: 5/10
Prediction: 5th-8th

Ukraine
If anyone can beat Denmark tonight it is Zlata from Ukraine. The performance of this song just blew me away in the first semi-final and the giant, which I though was a terrible idea, actually worked well in the song. Ukraine is another country which may benefit from the absence of the Balkan countries  and if this is true, looking at the order of voting I think Ukraine is a possible winner.
My Grade: 9.5/10
Prediction: 1st-4th

Italy
One of the talked about entries this year, Italy has a very strong San Remo entry this year that may soak up some votes from the juries. However I disagree with the people who argue this is a winner. Unlike 2011 there are many songs that the juries could vote for. This song is not as strong as Italy's 2011 and 2012 entries and is perhaps a bit too San Remo for Eurovision. Therefore I don't see this as a huge challenger.
My Grade: 5.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th

Norway
I'm going to be really controversial right now and say that I do not believe Norway is going to come within an asses roar of the top 10. This is a song that struggled to beat Bombo in the national final and I think that it is the over hyped song of the year.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 21st-26th

Georgia
Georgia has a great entry this year that I really love. Eurovision by numbers but still I just want to be drawn into it and sing. I don't think that this is a strong enough number to win out right, particularly when Azerbaijan is strong this year too, but it could still take points from very promising songs.
My Grade: 9/10
Prediction: 5th-8th

Ireland
Once again despite being mentioned as a winner Ireland should, on cue fall flat on it's face as what tends to happen at Eurovision finals. I can't really comment on this one without being biased one way or the other. So I'll just make a prediction.
Prediction: 13th-16th

So after all that my top 10 songs in this years Eurovision final are:

12 points - Denmark

10 points - Ukraine

8 points - Georgia

7 points - Finland

6 points - Germany

5 points - United Kingdom

4 points - Sweden

3 points - Malta

2 points - Iceland

1 point - The Netherlands

But enough about me, my prediction for the top 10 is as follows.

1. Denmark

2. Ukraine

3. Azerbaijan

4. Germany

5. Greece

6. Russia

7. Georgia

8. Sweden

9. Armenia

10. Finland

Ireland - Oh Ireland

Smart followers of this blog may have noticed have noticed that things have been quiet lately. Unfortunately I've been extremely busy lately. Anyhow tomorrow night Ireland decides on their Eurovision entry. Being Irish I've always been very strongly interested to see who my fellow Irishmen and women choose.

Unlike general practice on this blog I've decided not to put up reviews. In all honesty each song has it's merits and these should be acknowledged, together with their faults.

Inchequin probably are the weakest contenders and I'd say have the least chance of going to Eurovision. Even if the public were to vote for this song I'd think the juries will not rank it very highly. I do note though that it did win the poll over on Wiwiblogs. Though not quite the favourite I'd say Amiee Fitzpatrick has the best chance of going to ESC, largely because she only has the only ballad in the contest. Then we come to the three club songs. I sincerely hope that one of these will be sent. They offer Ireland the best chance at Eurovision, largely because they are very different. I hope that the best vocalist will come through and we will judge them based on that.

May the best song win. I'll talk to you on Twitter.

What A Great Year It Was

2012 certainly has been a wonderful year for Eurovision fans. We've learned new things about the contest, we're now better able to ask other questions, but what stands out?

Loreen

Without a doubt the star of 2012 in the eyes of so many fans. I must admit I was not impressed by Euphoria at first but it does take me a couple of listens to get my head around a good song. At Eurovision she has definitely wrote a chapter in the history of Eurovision, not just for being a great song or gaining the second highest number of points ever received, but more importantly she won the contest for the fans. For this we should be grateful.

What national final formats actually work?

There is a huge difference of opinion about the best way to run a national final. While most fans will talk about running Melodifestivalen styled finals that may be too big and expensive to run in smaller countries, there has been many changes to national final formats this year. Yet, in spite of this there has been little convergence in formats which makes it very difficult to argue that one type works. 

Are the changes to the contest for the better?

Certainly it has been well flagged by the EBU that Eurovision will change substantially over the coming years, as Sweden the contest this would appear to be a relativity easy thing to achieve this year. We saw the beginnings of this change in Oslo in 2010, but it to difficult to say what the ultimate results of this change is. There have been differing opinions about the changes to the contest. Personally on the macro level I agree with the change and I don't see it as threatening the future of the contest. However I don't agree with everything that has changed but as with nearly all changes to the contest we cannot say how they will affect it until we see it in practice.

 Will we see another Junior Eurovision Song Contest?

This is probably one of the more regrettable questions that I write here. There are a lot of threats to JESC at the moment however I think it would be a real shame to lose it. Rather than being just a smaller version of the contest run in December, it has developed its own distinctive flavour and is differ to many of the other shows, I hope that the EBU will continue to develop ideas about how to allow it to continue and hopefully grow in size. 

So those are the main stand out points and themes of this Eurovision year. 

I wish you all a happy and prosperous New Year.

New Singles and Videos!

So with virtually no news of Eurovision of late, we turn to the follow up singles and videos that come in the mist of Post Eurovision Depression.

Elferia Elferiou [or something like that] from Greece has released her song Hearts Collide. The song is a bit hollow for the average northern European but it is a good summer song.

As, in similar news Loreen has released the video of Euphoria which is sort of what I expected, as Loreen is keen not to link the song with relationships/love/normal Eurovision topics in my opinion and the video reflects that. A link to the video is here.

Split Jury Results Are Out!

The last couple of weeks have seen a definite slow down in stories coming through about however today the most important piece of news to come from EBU in the form of a split jury/televoting break down. Here we discuss what happened in the final.

Televoting
Unsurprisingly Sweden topped the televote. The surprising thing was that Russia came second on the televote but by only 9 points. This means that, for the second year running if combined voting was not used there would have been a far more interesting finish. It will surprise many people how well Russia did. Serbia came third, Turkey came fourth and Azerbaijan came fifth. Estonia only came 12th despite coming 6th overall. Germany came 6th in the vote. Romania, surprisingly

On the other end of the list France came last with 0 points, which many will find quite shocking, especially considering the level of promotion that she did. UK would also have finished a more respectable 21st place. This will have implications at the BBC as their entire strategy was based on a good jury vote. But for the second year running the jury final performance was not up to standard.

Generally the public split over Russia and Sweden. However the top 5 managed to soak up a huge propotion of the votes, and the top 10 soaked a massive 71% of the televote points, meaning that the rest had very little points between them.

Juries
Juries once again proved surprising, but fair, even if their year on year voting seems inconsistent. Sweden won the jury vote by a massive 123 points. Unlike the televote the juries were extremely spread in the songs that they voted for. Though the number of points given by the juries to the top 10 was similar to the public vote (63%) the spread of the votes between places 9 and 22 was only 54 points, which is very small.

Somewhat surprisingly the Hump came last here, followed by Jedward. Albania and Italy tied for third, Spain came fifth and Estonia came 6th. Unlike the televote the jury top 5 would have been radically different for the actually one. France and Ukraine were the big surprises in the jury votes, coming 7th and 13th respectively.

The combining of the two votes worked very well. If you add up jury and public televoting points the order of the top 10 remains the same, in fact other than some rearranging at the bottom, the scoreboard is very similar. Many people brush this aside but I think that it is important that this occurs for me to have confidence in the voting.

That concludes the first piece of analysis. Tomorrow [All going to plan] I'll do a piece of the semi-final breakdown.

The Most Accurate Country?

We all have a short list of Eurovision pundits, bloggers and webmasters who in our own minds are pretty accurate about predicting the contest. There are also some polls that we might pay close attention to, all of which is an understandable aspect of human nature, but are there countries that are just more accurate when it comes to Eurovision. Countries who just seem to have their fingers on the pulse of Europe? Or is everyone just guessing. Well looking at the points in this years contest they're might just be....

So how can you figure this one out? Well, I decided to calculate this as follows: Take the points given to the top 10. The amount of points given to the winning song is multiplied by 12. The amount of points given to the second placed song is multiplied by 10. Third place is multiplied 8, 4th is multiplied by 7 and so on until we reach 10th place. The maximum number of points that can be given is 448. So with out further ado the most accurate countries were:

1. Germany

2. Bulgaria

3. Lithuania 

4. Belgium

5. Austria

6. Hungary

7. France 

8. Norway

9. Netherlands

10. Finland

That's a rather interesting mix of countries. Interestingly voting in line with Europe at the contest has little to do with how successful the country's entry was Austria came 5th here despite coming last in their semi-final. Norway came last in the final and finished 8th here.

But what about the crazy inaccurate countries who throw points all across Europe? Who are they?

1. Albania - Just weird votes 

2. Serbia - Giving high points to neighbours doesn't make you accurate.

3. Sweden - Not being able to vote for yourself never helps, but seriously 12 to Cyprus?

3. Romania - Tied with Sweden

5. Azerbaijan - More strange votes

I intend to look at this in more depth as the summer goes on.

One Year Online

One year and 307 posts later I'm delighted to be celebrating one year online. What a year it's been. It seems like a long time ago since I first wrote my first post. To look back on the previous year I've compiled a list of different posts which were on the blog over the past year.

June was the strangest month ever to start a Eurovision blog, largely because no one wanted to read about Eurovision but in that time I did suggest 8 changes that the reference group could make to the contest. 6 still have to be implemented, one was continued and one is a little hazy, but hey, I made some impact(?). July and August were as dull as ever with some exceptions such as the end of a Schlager era. October eventually came around and Melodifestivalen kicked off and Netherlands became hosts of JESC 2012. December saw Georgia win JESC 2011 and the start of the Eurovision season with a National Final in Switzerland and Albania decided to send Rona Nishliu to Eurovision, but it wasn't just national finals. December saw me publish what is still my favourite post, a book review of Ewan Spence's It's Cold and There Are Children Singing.

2012 rolled in and national finals came with it. Denmark was my favourite national final in Janurary, having said that I was disappointed with the songs as I felt that the Denmark had a serious chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. I also published a Running Order research paper, though it received a quite reception at the time it was very popular during Eurovision week, in contrast my piece on why Ireland needs Jedward for Eurovision 2012 seems just a little out of place at this point in time. Having said that it was one of the most popular pieces this year.

February 2012 saw the strongest Icelandic national final in years with a great result. Regardless of what may have happened at Eurovision "Never Forget" will always have a special place for me. Though Norway should have sent Bobby Bare and Petter Oien or maybe Plumbo their national final this year leaves me with a lot of really great memories. Jedward too were selected for Ireland. March 2012 saw Engelbert Humperdinck being selected for the UK. Melodifestivalen 2012 came and went and of course this meant that Loreen was choosen for Sweden. I published analysis of Melodifestivalen containing an important line where I did saw Sweden had this years contest.

Everything went quite for April until the contest sprung up in Baku in May. ESCToday was hacked and rehearsals began in earnest. Eurovision week came, semi-final 1 was as predictable as expected, semi-final had some surprises and of course Sweden won the final. A win for Sweden, Loreen, Melodifestivalen, Eurovision and most of all Eurovision fans.

After one year there's a couple of people who I owe thanks to, far to many to mention and if I left you out well, sorry, I can't remember everyone. Special thanks is due to Ewan Spence and the team over on ESCInsight, who were the first people to list the blog. I'd like to mention Samantha Ross and Tobias Larsson who have been great inspirations for Eurovision blogging, and whose blogs are remarkably interesting pieces of work. I'd also like to mention Anthony Granger who is a great inspiration for Eurovision bloggers everywhere, showing us all that no matter how young Eurovision fans can achieve great things. A huge thanks is also due to escXtra and All Kinds Of Everything whose coverage of Eurovision 2012 allowed me to form opinions on this year's contest with information I'd otherwise not have.

Special thanks is also due to you the readers, whose Tweets, Comments and Messages always let me know that people are still reading and interested, which is very important to me.

Sadly despite my best hopes it is highly unlikely that I will be at Eurovision 2013, as my exam timetable is most likely going to clash with Rehearsals week and Eurovision Week. But, I still am looking forward to a second great Eurovision year.

Cultural Voting In This Years Contest

At last I was able to take the time to do some analysis of the results, of course while many sites are looking at the impact of the running order and where neighbourly and diaspora voting exists I'm going to do something just a little more controversial and look at Cultural voting or Block voting in this years contest. When I think of voting at Eurovision I prefer not to deny the existence of block voting. But I do differentiate it from neighbourly voting.

So What Is Block Voting? 
Block or Cultural voting is when groups of countries which are geographically fairly close vote the same way. This does not mean constantly exchange 12's though. The qualifications that I'd make with Cultural voting are:

• It is usually only one way. 
• It is common for a group of countries to vote for a country completely outside of the group. 
• It is also common for the group to give a lot of points to other members of the group. 
• Not all Eurovision countries are contained in one of these groups. Middle Europe (Hungary and Slovakia) are excluded as their votes can go anywhere.
• These groups are not scientifically derived but arrived at after a good number of years spent looking at Eurovision voting.

Below I have listed what I feel are the five cultural groups and forces at Eurovision with some commentary on anything strange that happened within them. The results are shown of each of the top 10 in each country and the average points awarded by that block.

Group 1: South-Eastern Europe - Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, Israel, Albania.

This group mainly consists of the countries in the south east of Europe who don't tend to always do the same thing. However overall I believe that they do tend to vote in a similar way. They top 10 here was:

1. Sweden - 7.9

2. Azerbaijan - 7.4

3. Greece - 6.6 
4. Russia - 4.9

5. Serbia - 4.8

6. Turkey - 4.1

7. Albania - 3.6
8. Cyprus - 3.3

9. Italy - 3.3

10. Spain - 3.1

Other than the high placing of Greece and Azerbaijan this vote was fairly unremarkable. A notable absence from the list is Germany, who only came 18th in this block.  Romania was the only member of this block not to feature in the block's top 10.

Group 2 - Ex-USSR - Russia, Belarus, Lithuania, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

This is a fairly logical block, consisting of mostly Russia's neighbours and Moldova. 

1. Azerbaijan - 10.2

2. Russia - 8.2
3. Sweden - 8

4. Ukraine - 6.2

5. Lithuania - 4.8

6. Malta - 3.6

7. Moldova - 3.3
8. Estonia - 3

9. Turkey - 2.9

10. Romania - 2.7

There's a couple of surprises here. Sweden only managed to get one set of 12 points from here so I suppose unsurprisingly didn't actually win the block. But Azerbaijan always does extremely in this part of the world. I suppose Ukraine is very high here for a song that came 15th. Malta also did remarkably well here, coming 6th when they came 21st overall.

Group 3 - Balkan - Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Slovenia.

We all know of this block, it is the various parts of what used to be Yugoslavia

1. Serbia - 11.2

2. FYR Macedonia - 9.2

3. Sweden - 8

4. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 7

5. Albania - 6.2

6. Russia - 5.3

7. Azerbaijan - 2.8

8. Italy - 2.3

9. Turkey - 2

10. Cyprus - 1.3

I'd say the low placing of Russia here and the fact Sweden only came third in the group is a bit odd. It is also noticeable that the three countries in the final in this block came in the top 4. Albania also came fifth, who can tend to be in or out of the block depending on the mood that they are in. Malta also did fairly well, they came 11th here. 

Group 4 - Old Europe - France, Belgium, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, San Marino and Italy.

This group is what I call a traditional part of Europe that is not the north. Cultural voting here is not extremely strong voting between internal countries it does tend to vote the same way.

1. Sweden - 8.5
2. Serbia - 7
3. Russia - 6.4
4. Albania - 6
5. Spain - 5
6. Germany - 4.2
7. Turkey - 3.9
8. Estonia - 3.4
9. Moldova - 2.8
10. Romania -2.6

This was clearly one of the stranger of the groups as the highest placed of the group here was Spain. This was generally a fairly logical vote, the only surprise was the exclusion of Azerbaijan, who managed to only get 4 points from this whole group of ten countries.

Group 5 - Northern and North West Europe - Norway, Sweden, Ireland, UK, Iceland, Denmark, Finland, Estonia and Latvia.

This grouping might surprise some people. Definitely Scandinavia tends to have cultural voting. However it is interesting to see how all these countries interact with each other. In the final Ireland has not given 12 points to outside of these countries since 2007. 

1. Sweden - 12

2. Russia - 7.2

3. Estonia - 6.9

4. Germany - 5.2

5. Ireland - 4

6. Lithuania - 3

7. Iceland - 3

8. Serbia - 2.8

9. Spain - 2.3

10.   Cyprus - 2.2

This was an interesting group as in almost every country in final that was in the group [except Sweden] received almost or more than half their points from these countries. In addition Germany did very well here, much like when they won in 2010. Iceland too gained points here. Also as we go further down the list France came 12th here, United Kingdom and Denmark came 13th.

So that is all five of the groups I see. Comments as always, are welcome. 

One Week Later....

This time last week I was, like I am now sitting at my desk. The main difference this time is that rather than being in total unsurprise at Sweden winning the contest the after effects of Post-Eurovision Depression [PED] has really started to kick in.

Anyhow, as I have alluded to in some postings this week, I have been inclined towards stepping back from blogging purely because after the whole two weeks that have gone by I'm glad to have some time to myself and not be as driven to blog.

This week I noticed that there was a lot more news than there was the week after last weeks contest, as well as some very interesting reading. So, in bullet points here's the last week in Eurovision:

• Loreen returned home to Sweden after the contest and received a heroes welcome. Her winning song, Euphoria, has gone to number one in many Western European countries, a great achievement for both Loreen and the contest. Here in Ireland Eurovision has made an impressive impact on the charts. Full details of that here.
• 'Tis the season of Opinion Pieces and over on ESCInsight the team have thrown up two really impressive pieces of discussion on accepting responsibly for your defeat and another on what (or indeed who) the UK needs to do to improve at Eurovision.  
• Danny Saucedo [the guy who didn't represent Sweden in this year's Eurovision] has come under fire for his comments he made after Melodifestivalen 2012 about Loreen not being the best choice to send to the contest. He asked for people to give him a break and said that any song could have won for Sweden this year. I think this is in fact a huge insult to Loreen and the quality of her song. Anyway if any song could have won they should have sent Bjorn Ranelid and Sara Li. Give Europe something to stare at. 
• As well as being the season of opinion pieces it is also the season of statistics and this year Eurovision Times are leading the charge. They have an excellent piece on where Sweden got it's points from. They have a far more interesting article on Azerbaijans scoring in the contest. Make of it what you will but I would be interested if the EBU makes any comment on the matter.
• The Scissor Sisters have offered to entry for the UK next year. Personally I don't care who they send but I believe that the public should have a say on either the song or preferably both singer and song.
• Before anyone asks me I don't know when the jury/public results will be released. From the last three years it should be out by the end of June but is liable to come up at any stage. Unlike last year though I don't expect that there will be as many differences of opinion. 
• RTÉ will screen a documentary about Jedward's time in Baku on Thursday evening at 21:30 on RTÉ 2.

So those are the main stories in what has been a rather busy Eurovision week. 

Soluna Samay Gets A Little Bitchy!

I just happened to come across Soluna Samay's YouTube channel and she has some really entertaining videos up there but one that I noticed was a cover of Taylor Swift's Mean (One of my favourite songs) but with a little message in the video. See how many seconds it takes to you work out what that message is!

What If?

Today I ask the simple question: What if the only the countries with songs in the each contest actually were the ones who could vote. Essentially this means that the six automatic qualifiers are excluded from the semi-finals.

Interestingly in the semi-finals this would not have changed the qualifiers.

Semi 1 

1. Russia - 135

2. Albania - 118

3. Greece - 98

4. Romania - 91

5. Ireland - 83

6. Moldova - 80

7. Cyprus - 75

8. Iceland - 67

9. Denmark - 57

10. Hungary - 50

As you can see the qualifiers don't change but the order of them does. Finland would also have come 11th with Pernilla getting 41 points. In semi-final 2 it was a similar situation.

1. Sweden - 155

2. Serbia -134

3. Lithuania - 89

4. Estonia - 76

5. Bosnia + Herzegovina - 67 

6. Turkey - 61

7. Ukraine - 60

8. Malta - 58

9. Macedonia - 53

10. Norway - 45

This might not seem to make a vast amount of sense but it does show which countries got through with the support of Eastern Europe rather than countries like Estonia who nearly got 1/4 of their points from Germany, Spain and the UK.

Stats from the final will be up shortly

The Monday After

Only 351 days to the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013. [Seems a long way away doesn't it?].

Anyway as Loreen starts to climb up through the charts across Europe it's time to start looking at what happened last night and who came where. 

As you just might already know Sweden won the contest, with 372 points and gaining the most number of 12 points ever [18 sets]. Whether you liked the song or not I think that this is a serious win and one that helps the contest as whole. It shows that the best song can win the contest regardless of where it is geographically. Most of all Sweden's is a huge one for fans of the contest.

Russia came second on Saturday, the grannies proving that age is no barrier to success. [Despite what Engelbert Humperdinck might think]. Serbia came third Zeljko proving that a safe Balkan ballad can bring you some success, especially when there isn't many other Balkan ballads in the competition. Azerbaijan came fourth which is a very respectable for a host country and suggests that Azerbaijan will still be a force to be reckoned with in future contests. Albania came fifth, which might raise a couple of eyebrows, but I did say that this would do a bit better than expected. It shows that a technically good song, combined with an outstanding vocal performance can do well in the contest.

Estonia came sixth which was as surprising as when they came sixth in 2009. Definitely Ott deserved his placing, but this was a big surprise. Turkey came seventh which, I do believe was a fair placing for them. Then three of the big 5 came Germany - Roman Lob doing about as well as can be expected. Italy - I'm not sure how Nina Zilli might feel about her placing but I felt it was a bit below where I'd put the song. Spain came tenth, their best result in since 2004, which they should be pleased with. Personally speaking, Spain was the standout performance of the evening, it was the song I voted for and I think it deserved a high place than it got.

Looking down at the bottom of the table, Norway came last [again] which was a big surprise but given that Loreen most likely hoovered up votes from around Europe this is understandable. UK and Engelbert Humperdinck came second last with just 12 points which was a disappointing results for The Hump. I think the running order really went against the UK though. Also for the second year running the UK did a poor jury final performance. This really will raise some questions in the BBC and I also intend to have a post on the UK over the summer.

Hungary, despite being well tipped to come last didn't, which might be seen as a success. Denmark came 23rd which was disappointing for Soluna Samay. I think she did a wonderful song and full credit to her for that. France came 22nd, showing that touring around Europe doesn't really help your chances. Malta came 21st, no big surprises there. Iceland and Ireland both should be disappointed with their results, Ireland especially, where Jedward were hotly tipped to do well.

The only other real surprise was that Greece fell out of the top 10 for the first time since 2003. This might mean that one of the most consistent Eurovision countries may be falling, but also I don't think that the song deserved to come much higher.

I'll have more  analysis of the results during this week.

Congradulations To Sweden

Well that was all a bit surprising wasn't it? Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. Loreen and her song incredible song Euphoria won tonights vote amassing a massive 372 points. 


While this result may not be surprising the remaining top 5 were quite a surprise. In fact they were very close to how the bookies had expected. Russia came second, Serbia third, Azerbaijan fourth and Albania fifth [they're best result yet]. There were no massive records broken but there is quite a lot to be analysed.

The big surprise tonight was the low scoring of the rest of Scandinavia and the UK and Ireland. I haven't seen a full score table yet and once I've had time to process these I'll be better able to discuss the overall  result.

In the meantime, and until Sweden 2013 I wish you all the very best.

Voting Order

The voting order was announced over on eurovision.tv earlier this afternoon. Looking briefly over them it would appear that a western European country is being held back as 12 western countries are going to announce their votes in places 25-35. Balkan countries are generally announcing their votes earlier.

Who Will Win Eurovision 2012?

Tonight sometime after 11pm a years worth a speculation, of wonder and projections will all be shown to be either true or untrue. Will 2012 be another 2009? Or maybe a shocking 2000? Well there still is time for a lot more predicting today. So lets look at how the field is shaping up:

Hypothesis 1 - Most Likely

UK - Engelbert didn't have his greatest performance since he arrived in the jury final and I think that this is falling by the wayside at great speeds. Being the first of five slow songs won't help either. Despite earlier predictions of beating Blue, I suspect that this could end up lower than the UK expected. Prediction: 16th-20th


Hungary - This is a song that I really feel is not up to the required standard of the final. I think this will most likely come last but it might do a little better due to a lack of rock in this years final. Prediction: 21st-26th


Albania - Despite what many might say about this song it has a lot of fans out there and is getting quite a lot of views on YouTube. I think this is going to do a lot better than people expect. However the draw will hold it back but I suspect this will be in the jury top 5 and do well on the public televote. Prediction: 6th-10th


Lithuania - I am happy to see Lithuania in the final, however I do suspect that it got there as the 10th qualifier. I think this is just one of those songs that won't standout on the final night. Prediction: 21st-26th


Bosnia & Herzegovina - This is another song which I think shouldn't have made the final as it is really dull. The other Balkan songs will hoover up the votes so I think that this is going to go nowhere and is another potential last place song. Prediction: 21st-26th


Russia - Russia really have a great piece of entertainment in this entry. I suspect though that they will find it difficult to bring this song over the line when the points come in. I think that while there will be some jury support for this I can't really see it making the dizzying heights of the Top 5. However it is sandwiched between a large number of ballads which helps to make it stand out. Prediction: 6th-10th


Iceland - Despite this being a fan favourite and the fact that I do like it as a song, I think this was the one that was saved by the juries from the first semi-final. It is a strong song, and could score reasonably well with juries. However I think that this just isn't going to get enough public televotes. Prediction: 16th-20th


Cyprus - I was impressed with this song in the first semi-final but given the draw and the opposition it is going to come under a lot of pressure. Ivi didn't have the best jury show [vocally] and I think that this will lose out in a high quality show. Prediction: 21st-26th

France - This was another one which could have gone either way. However I think that this song is just to inaccessible to get in one listen and that in the jury final where Auggun would have needed a lot more votes from she didn't sing well enough. Parts of the song were pretty off-key. Overall I can't see this having a huge impact. Prediction: 21st-26th


Italy - Once again Italy and France are beside each other in the final. But this year I think it is very safe to say that Italy will outscore France. Out of Love is a really great song and deserves recognition. I don't believe that this has the oomph to get it over the line but it does have the strength to score well with juries. Nina has given a very consistent performance since she arrived in Baku, there's no reason to suspect that she won't tonight. I think it is a possible winner but an unlikely one. Prediction: 1st-5th


Estonia - I think this is one that is going to do better than expected. I think juries will like this song over other vocally good songs and I think it won't do awfully on the televote. It's not going to win by any stench of the imagination though. Predictions: 16th-20th


Norway - This is a song that I suspected might do well if it got a strong draw. It didn't but it still could do reasonably well for Norway. Tooji didn't give the best performance last night but it wasn't to bad. I think this might come around 10th with the public but about 15th with juries. Prediction: 11th-15th


Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan have definitely sent the typically host country bland song. However it is the host country and it is Azerbaijan who have a short but good track record. There's something in this song for both  juries and public. Prediction: 6th-10th


Romania - If it wasn't for their 2010 entry I'd say this was going to do really well for Romania. This didn't go perfectly in the jury final but it still will score well. This song has a track record so it will do pretty well. Prediction: 11th-15th


Denmark - Despite this being a favourite of mine I think this is not going to do very well. It is a bit of a neutral entry but has some potential. Prediction: 16th-20th


Greece - Tonight is going to be a real test of the strength of the Greek vote. There will be a good number of diaspora votes but I still think this won't get the jury support that it needs. This might well be the first Greek song out of the top 10, but then again di dn't we all say that last year? Prediction: 11th-15th


Sweden - Despite one small mistake in the jury final I think that this is the one to beat. I think that the extra votes that it got at Melodifestivalen, the fact it has been a success in Norway, Finland and Greece shows that it is neither just a fan favourite nor a piece of Swedish music that will only score well in Scandinavia. However if this doesn't win it could come further down the scoreboard. Prediction: 1st-5th


Turkey - After shockingly missing the final last year Turkey are back in a big way, I think that while some think that this is a poor enough song I actually think that it is fairly strong [I still don't like it]. This also works really well on stage. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both very able to score well when both have strong songs and I think that this year will be no different. Prediction: 2nd-5th


Spain - I'm not Spanish but unlike most people I think that this is a really, really good song and the vocal performance is simply jaw dropping. I think this could win the jury vote [marginally] but I think while it is a contender to do that anything is possible tonight so I think it might not do all that well as I'm unsure what the public will make of it. Prediction: 6th-10th


Germany - I think that Germany have come up with a song that might do better if it was only the northwest of Europe voting. I also wonder if Germany is going to be able to override their political image tonight. I know they did this in 2010 but I'm not convinced that they can do so tonight. Juries might well give this a couple of extra points  but I don't see it as the dark horse that everyone else seems to. Prediction: 6th-10th


Malta - Malta were a surprise qualifier in my books but now they have a great draw which might help them, especially when they are surrounded by ballads. I suspect though that this scrapped into te final and I think they should be happy with that. However it is a strong song, compared to those around it so it might get a few more votes. Prediction: 11th-15th


FYR Macedonia - Macedonia have quite a strong song relative to the position in the draw. Kaliopi is one of the more well-known Balkan singers and should score well across the region. She has excellent vocals and is another potential jury winner. But I suspect that the song may not have huge appeal outside of the Balkans. Prediction: 11th-15th


Ireland - I can only say that I'm really proud of Jedward and feel that they are great ambassadors for Ireland. I wish them the best of luck tonight. This was good in the jury final and they have scored well with juries before. The big question is can they overcome Eastern Europe? Last year nearly all the points they got came from Western Europe so if they can't they'll most likely not score as well. But I suspect that they may break Eastern Europe and do pretty well. Prediction: 1st-5th


Serbia - Despite this being third favourite I'm not convinced that this song is fresh enough to be a winner. If Lane Moje could not do it in 2004, when Balkan Ballads were popular I find it difficult to believe that a less exciting copy of the song can beat it in 2012. Having FYR Macedonia doesn't help Zeljko's chances either. Prediction: 1st-5th

Ukraine - Ukraine did well in the draw, drawing the well regarded second last slot. Ukraine have a very strong singer with a not-so-strong song. It will pick up a couple of undecided votes in the coming so late. Prediction: 6th-10th


Moldova - This is a song I feel will be lost at the end. After a rake of strong songs this almost pales in comparision. Pasha is a great performer and singer but there is little in this to really bring in a lot of votes. Prediction: 16th-20th


So it's time to get off of the fence. I think that the Top 5 will look like this:

1. Sweden

2. Italy

3. Turkey

4. Ireland

5. Serbia

That's really all that can be said. I wish everyone good luck tonight. It's in the hands of the juries and the public now. May the best song win.

My Favourites!

After a minimum of two months listening to all of these songs suddenly you have to consider all of them together and now that I have seen them all performed live we can start to see just which songs are in my Top 10 for 2012.

This year as with any is difficult to work out exactly which are my favourites. But here we go, (with reasons why). Ireland is always excluded from my favourites due to bias towards our entry which I think you should all vote for and bring the contest to Dublin. As you can see a tiny amount of bias is coming through. So in no particular order my top 10 are:


Sweden - Well it's been one of my favourites since it was picked. I just love this and I think it would be a deserving winner. I'm not convinced that the song was performed as well as it could have been in the semi-final but maybe that's me being picky though. 


Estonia - Ott may not have the best song in the competition but his vocal performance is strong. It is a great relaxing song and came across well in the semi-final. I think this did well in the semi and could score well off the juries in the final.


Romania - Since the rehearsals started I have gone from thinking that this is OK to thinking that it is fairly flat to being one of the most fun entries this year. The song comes across really well and this is hugely thanks to a strong performance from Mandinga. 


UK - Despite some reservations about Engelbert going to Eurovision for the UK I still think that the song he as produced is really really good and is a great one to listen to. Engelbert has come up well in the rehearsals and it should be good on the night.

Spain - Whatever people might say about Spain I think that this is just an outstanding song. It's not a great one for the MP3 player but it is a truely amazing song live. I know how the Spanish fans feel about this entry and I'm not quite sure that it is a winner, but it is a strong song. 

Italy - Of course as second/third/fouth [depends on the bookmaker] favourites they have a really strong song and a really good singer to pull it off. Italy did well last but I don't expect that they will break last years results.  
Largely because it's to safe to do really well. It doesn't have the risk of Raphael last year.


Russia - One of the most discussed songs this year had fallen in my estimation during the run up to the rehearsals. However on Tuesday night I though that this was stunning. Not my favourite and I don't think that it is a winner but I still think that it has hit potential. 


Denmark - I accept that not everyone loves this song. Despite the cute and cuddly image this has come through a seriously tough DMGP and continues to divide fans. The jury rehearsal of this was strong. I don't think it is a winner but it isn't going to come last. Personally it was my favourite in the first semi-final, it has fallen a bit since then but it still is really great. 


Iceland - I've had a soft spot for this song as have many fans. I'm not convinced that this is as good as some people make out based on the semi-final performance and YouTube numbers. I recognise it as a really great song and I acknowledge that.


Albania - This is another song that was simply outstanding in the semi-final. It's a simple performance of a really complex song. Well done Albania.


You're still reading? Great. You skipped down here without reading the above? That's not so good but I'll survive. So I would place these songs in the following order.

12. Sweden

10. Albania

8. UK

7. Italy

6. Spain

5. Iceland

4. Denmark

3. Romania

2. Estonia

1. Russia

I'll put up real predictions either tonight or tomorrow morning once the jury final is over.

A Couple Of Surprising Results

While the press gather to fire up live streams and blogs I shall take a couple of moments to discuss the semi-final results. So here is a couple of small points on the contest.

The Qualifiers
Just in case you've forgotten the qualifiers were (In Random Order):

1. Lithuania

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina 

3. Serbia

4. Ukraine

5. Sweden

6. FYR Macedonia

7. Norway

8. Estonia

9. Malta

10. Turkey

The main surprises were the qualification of Lithuania, B+H, Malta and to a lesser extent FYR Macedonia. The biggest losers were Slovenia and Portugal in my opinion. While the names are surprising about 15 songs were in the mix to qualify, no one shocking came out though. My predictions were a bit out - I only got 7/10. 

The Interval Act
I thought that the interval act definitely one of the best we've seen until Ell & Nikki proved that even they thought that their winning song was boring so just sung Waterloo [a bit out of tune] just to confuse people. It was pure car crash television.

Presenters
Presenters were as good as they were in Semi-Final 1. Which was pretty poor.

The Finalists
Finalists are from all over Europe but they break down as follows. 3 Balkans, 2 Baltic, 2 Scandinavia, Turkey, Malta and Ukraine. Which is pretty diverse. The importance of the running order was clearly shown.  Despite predictions of the 3-5 from the first half and 5-7 from the second half being broken it wasn't and the break down was four from the first half and six from the second.


The Draw will take place in the press conference which is currently ongoing.

The Draw 
The positions drawn is as follows:

Lithuania - #4

B+H - #5

Serbia - #24

Ukraine - #25
Sweden - #17
Macedonia - #22
Norway - #12
Estonia - #11
Malta - #21
Turkey - #18

This is a very interesting draw. I'll be writing about this in more detail over the next couple of hours and days but by this time Saturday. 

Semi-Final 2: The Qualifiers

Predictions Time!

Semi-Final 2 is definitively the better one musically but with 5 Balkan countries, two from Scandinavia and two from the Baltics this becomes a hard one to predict. Looking at my workings theres probably 15 songs that could make the final it is just a question of who. So in the order I expect them to score here are my predictions:

1. Sweden

2. Serbia

3. Estonia

4. Norway

5. Turkey

6. Ukraine

7. Georgia

8. Slovenia

9. Bosnia & Herzegovina

10. Portugal

Just Missing Out

11. Macedonia

I'll try to do as much coverage as I can but in the morning I have my driving test so lets hope that I manage to pass this time.

Semi-Final 2: My Favourites

Before I have to delve into the ins and outs of trying to predict how semi-final 2 will go, I have to put up a favs post. Even though this is a better semi musically there is very little that is really getting me excited. The exception being though my top two in this semi-final.

12 points - Sweden

10 points - Portugal

8 points - Netherlands

7 points - Estonia

6 points - Norway

5 points - Slovenia

4 points - Ukraine

3 points - Lithuania

2 points - Serbia

1 point - Malta

I'll but up a predictions post either late tonight or tomorrow morning when I've got reports from the jury rehearsal.

OMG That Was Just A Bit Close!

So tonight from the Crystal Hall the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest was held. Ten Qualifiers made it through to the final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. They are (in order revealed).

1. Romania

2. Moldova

3. Iceland

4. Hungary 

5. Denmark

6. Albania

7. Cyprus

8. Greece

9. Russia

10. Ireland

This means that Montenegro, Latvia, Switzerland, Belgium, Israel, Finland, Austria and San Marino. 

This blog post will be updated as more information comes in and I compose my thoughts. We are awaiting the winners press conference and the draw for the final running order.

Presenters:
The presenters tonight were pretty poor and probably gave the lowest standard of presenting in recent years.

No Surprises: 
Russia, Ireland and Romania were all seen as sure qualifiers. I was impressed with Russia's performance but please pardon my bias, Ireland had a really strong performance but I would say that Jedward did a really good performance.

Denmark and Iceland were also both seen as qualifiers. Denmark won got my vote simply because as I had said before, Denmark still is a stand out entry for me. Iceland was my second favourite. I was somewhat less impressed with the general performance on actually on my TV but I was still very happy with the overall package.

Albania was a little more surprising than the above entries. I've previously mentioned that I suspect that they won the jury vote being vocally really really strong. Greece was a not surprise, though it would be difficult to see them not making the final no matter what they send.

Cyprus was surprising for me, as I didn't expect that both Cyprus and Greece would get through given the similarity of their songs, Ivi also had a fairly poor jury rehearsal. But the song did look good on stage and I was impressed. Moldova though was seen as a bit of an outsider for many but some [like me] did see it as a qualifier. It had a strong vocal for the song so I suspect that it did well with both the jury and the public as it was a lot of fun.

The big surprise really was Hungary, which was the point where I started to worry about our chances. They're song really did nothing for me during the show.

The Draw
The starting positions of each of the following countries is as follows:

Romania - #14

Moldova - #26

Iceland - #7

Hungary - #2

Denmark - #15

Albania - #3

Cyprus - #8

Greece - #16

Russia - #6

Ireland - #23

Running Order Analysis

So far this is shaping up to be an interesting draw. The show will have a dull enough start with UK, Hungary and Albania opening. The UK should be happy enough with this. Hungary will struggle to survive in slot number two - the death slot. So far the songs in the middle of the show should complement each other fairly well.  Azerbaijan is in slot 13 then Romania in #14, Denmark in slot #15 and Greece in slot #16. Cyprus might not be over happy with the draw and I suspect that they will be in the 20th-26th position in the final. Particularly as it is followed by France and Italy, even though Ivi's song is different to Cyprus I still think it is not a good draw for them. Russia also won't be too pleased with their draw but at they are followed by Iceland who will be a complete change from the Russian grannies. 

Ireland should be very pleased with their draw, now while some have jumped the gun just a little, I would not say that this is a pretty good omen for Ireland and they should be able to launch a successful entry from this position. Really if we were going to do very well a couple more things [such as the qualifiers from semi-final 2] will impact on that. We just don't have the information yet. Probability though would say that it is unlikely that Ireland will get all of these favorable conditions together. If you want more info on the importance of the running order we did a theoretical paper earlier this year which can be found here. 

And one more thing.....

My family who was watching Eurovision with me really liked the clip played of the German entry. I think this could be a dark horse but until Thursday evening I'm still going with Sweden as the most likely winner.