I have been rather interested in the online debate which has emerged about the split results.
In contrast to many other years I have been surprised by the amount of acceptance that there has been of the results. Many other years have seen many fans call for an end to juries in the contest and a return to televoting.
Many websites have been shocked at the EBU only releasing the split averages of scores rather than using the old system. However I ask - did the old way of giving results really give you that much insight into how Europe voted?
I think that we as fans are inclined to over-obsess on the results. It is only a natural thing that would of course come from PED. Some people may try to reverse engineer the results to understand some of the results. But really when you think about it, what good is it to go back through individual results?
The EBU and PWC work together to ensure that there is no cheating at jury or televote level. While some of the voting patterns in the contest in the past five years do concern me I do think that these people are as concerned about the contest as we are and will spot irregularities in the voting patterns as they arise.
So really what good does it do us to know split results. Over on ESCInsight they have had some interesting debate and have suggested that we do not need to know the split results if all the EBU will give us is averages. However I don't use the split result to try to go back over the contest and where Denmark or any other country won and lost their votes. I use split results to better understand what songs worked with the public and what worked for the juries. This helps me to better understand the contest in the future, but does not let me focus on the past.
Of course it goes without saying that full details of the results should be released to clearly show how the voting worked and the EBU should do this.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Saturday, May 25, 2013
ESC 2013 Debrief
It is really hard to believe that it has only been a week since at this time I was probably watching the UK, Sweden, Hungary and Denmark all performing on the Eurovision stage. This was a strange Eurovision year for me. In the run up to it I had not the time to review all of the songs in the depth way I did last year. I hadn't the time either to think about reading all of the blog posts, analysis and articles that speculated about who exactly might win this year's Eurovision.
I had been afraid that I might not enjoy the contest enough or maybe I just didn't care anymore. Many of the blogs that I read pointed out that this year the quality of songs was very poor and perhaps, I thought, this was why I didn't pay as much attention to ESC this year. Fortunately though the contest creep-ed up on top of me this year, it was as magic as it ever was.
But now with Eurovision 2013 out of the way it is time to begin preparing for - The Eurovision Song Contest 2014.
I'm really looking forward to next year's contest. This year, I'll be honest and say that I was somewhat disappointed by SVT's show. While it was a contest that was as entertaining as ever - and arguably the first final I ever laughed during - I had expected something just a little more innovative from SVT. Looking back on the contest I sort of feel they took the Melodifestivalen format and sort of tried to fit Eurovision into that.
While on the surface ESC and MF are virtually the same show when you actually examine them they are deeply different. In the case of Eurovision 2013 it felt a bit like SVT tried to hammer the wrong jigsaw piece into where they thought it would go in the puzzle. Next year I think that DR may have a different show. I do expect it will be more close to DMGP, but I do think that this will be a really great thing.
As regards the political side of the contest I think that Dr. Paul Jordan has written an excellent blog posting looking back on this year's contest:
As regards me? I won't lie a time will come when I will run out of time and the blog will disappear. It is my plan to keep it going with whatever time I have through until at least this time next year. So I look forward to another great ESC, with all of my readers.
Finally those of you with a statistics fetish should keep an eye on the blog over the coming days.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
ESC Voting: Should We Worry?
If you are completely unaware that there has been some concerns raised about the voting in many countries this year, you either do not suffer from post-Eurovision depression or, you don't plan on looking at anything Eurovision-related until November.
Anyhow there appears to be a lot of surprises going on about the voting. This, as usual, suggests that there is some level of vote rigging going on.
Personally I think there is a straight forward problem here. Countries were not ready for the change in the voting system this year and many of them have not realised the impact it would have on the voting.
Before I continue my rant I would like to clearly state that I think the results of the contest were indeed very fair and the top 10 was correct in my opinion.
Of course questions must be raised about Azerbaijan targeting smaller countries for votes by trying to affect the results of the televote and these results should be checked for anything unusual.
However I would stress to everyone not to jump to conclusions about how certain countries voted in the final and then in the semi-final. Firstly it is my opinion that some of these anomalies occur because the new voting system had little affect on the semi-final results as there were only 16/17 countries taking part. However when this was expanded to 25 or 26 songs to vote on questions do have to be asked about whether it is right that either the jury or the televote should have as much power as they clearly do to wipe out the others votes.
I call on the EBU to release a full set of results for the 2013 contest including a breakdown between each individual country, stating the percentage of televotes that each song achieved and a breakdown of how each jury member voted.
If the EBU truly want to prove that there is no vote rigging in the contest they will have to release full results with the maximum amount of detail possible.
Anyhow there appears to be a lot of surprises going on about the voting. This, as usual, suggests that there is some level of vote rigging going on.
Personally I think there is a straight forward problem here. Countries were not ready for the change in the voting system this year and many of them have not realised the impact it would have on the voting.
Before I continue my rant I would like to clearly state that I think the results of the contest were indeed very fair and the top 10 was correct in my opinion.
Of course questions must be raised about Azerbaijan targeting smaller countries for votes by trying to affect the results of the televote and these results should be checked for anything unusual.
However I would stress to everyone not to jump to conclusions about how certain countries voted in the final and then in the semi-final. Firstly it is my opinion that some of these anomalies occur because the new voting system had little affect on the semi-final results as there were only 16/17 countries taking part. However when this was expanded to 25 or 26 songs to vote on questions do have to be asked about whether it is right that either the jury or the televote should have as much power as they clearly do to wipe out the others votes.
I call on the EBU to release a full set of results for the 2013 contest including a breakdown between each individual country, stating the percentage of televotes that each song achieved and a breakdown of how each jury member voted.
If the EBU truly want to prove that there is no vote rigging in the contest they will have to release full results with the maximum amount of detail possible.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Congratulations Denmark!
My heartiest congratulations go to the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013, Denmark with a fantastic song by the amazing Emmelie de Forest, Only Teardrops. Amassing a total of 281 points from all across Europe, she won by a landslide after an exciting round of voting.
I loved this song from the moment I heard that 30 second clip released, and was delighted when it won DMGP. It was my favourite in the contest and I was really delighted by it.
I look forward to joining you on the road Copenhagan, where we'll do this all over again next year. It's been a pleasure.
Seán
Seán
And The Winner of Eurovision 2013 Is?
The day of the Eurovision Final has finally dawned. 26 countries prepare to do battle in an exciting show from Malmo tonight. But who will emerge the winner? Let's take a look at the finalist tonight.
France
France this year have a nice song but has some have mentioned no one has this down in their top 10. It is a fairly dull song that could go down well with the juries and manage to get to the top of the right hand side of the scoreboard or it could slide well down it.
My Grade: 3/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Lithuania
Lithuania were certainly the most surprising country to make the final this year. The song is one which I thought would get knocked out in the semi-finals and don't see it going to far tonight.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Moldova
Moldova are always very strong at Eurovision and this year is no different. Aliona is a competent singer and she should do fairly well with the juries tonight. However as she has the third dull song in the opening part of the show I don't think the public are going to support this song enough.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 13th-16th
Finland
I was sickened by the fact I did not put a bet on this to win the semi-final. It was 25/1 on PaddyPower and even an each way bet would have helped the kitty in my mind. I think that this is one of the best songs in this years contest and I think that it may bode well in western Europe. Hard to say how it will go down in the east. I would have said this was certainly going to go top 10 but so many of Finland's neighbours are strong this year that it is hard to say.
My Grade: 8.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
Spain
A dull song which is only helped by a nice instrumental at the start this is a strong contender for last place in the contest this year. Sandwiched between Finland and Belgium and with so few neighbours this year I can't see this going far.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Belgium
Another song that I was surprised to see go through to the final this year. Roberto is certainly way above my expectations of him though they were low enough to begin with. This should do alright for Belgium but it will not be a repeat of 2010. Personally I like the studio version of the song, but not the live one that much.
My Grade: 5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Estonia
Deserving of a place in the final, Estonia have a really lovely song this year that I completely fell for during the semi-finals. They're not going to repeat last year, particularly if the northern countries are strong, but they do deserve credit where it is due. Hopefully this will not be at the end of the scoreboard tonight.
My Grade: 5.5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Belarus
I didn't really take to the new song that Belarus choose after the Rhythm of Love but I really didn't like the performance of the song on Tuesday night. There's far to much going on during the song and it just is not working for me. However I expect that the neighbour of Belarus will ensure this will not do to badly.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Prediction: 13th-16th
Malta
I don't think there is anyone who really does not like this song. It is wonderful and bouncy and Gianluca is just so happy when he performs it that it deserves to do well. While their running order position will not help them the introduction of drag back voting this year should help them a lot. I really like the song too and wish them the best of luck.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
Russia
Clinical as ever I was really impressed by Russia's semi-final performance and even my good mother thought that this was the best song in semi-final 1. Certainly it is a dark horse on paper, but the poor running order position (followed by Cascada) means that this will at best make 5th place. Which Russia would probably still be happy with.
My Grade: 6.5/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Germany
What can we say? One word - Cascada. This has all the right ingredients for another German win but I'm not entirely sure how it will fair on the night. It's not the best song that Cascada could have brought to the contest but it is a definite contender for a win.
My Grade: 8/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Armenia
Armenia did a great performance on the semi-final of this song, certainly it was enough to send Albania home on Thursday and being the only rock song in the final will also play well. Still it is not a great song overall and I could see this quietly move into the top 10. But it could flop too.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
The Netherlands
Doing amazingly well to be in the final Netherlands do need to do well tonight to convince the Dutch public they still can do well in the contest. Singing before Romania and just after an ad break will do them no favours but I still think they can manage. I like this song and hope Anouk can do well tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Romania
This one is really causing me a headache at the moment. There is no reason why this should be allowed to do well yet, if the juries strictly follow their criteria then this is a strong contender. But I still think the shock factor of this song will put some off from voting for it.
My Grade: 2/10
Prediction: 13th-16th
United Kingdom
The internal selection, the fact that they are one of the Big 5 and Engelbert's performance last year really makes it very hard to say how this song will go down. However it is Bonny Tyler and I don't think she will go down without a fight. I think she has a great song and is sure to pick up a few points here and there to lift them out of the bottom of the table.
My Grade: 7.5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Sweden
In my humble opinion Sweden have by far and away the most underrated song in this years contest. Though people in Sweden seem to think that this is a weak effort and will not go down well I think it is a strong song that may do well.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Hungary
Another surprise to make the final and another song which is a strong contender for last place. I think it is ok but ok just doesn't cut it for the final.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Denmark
It's favourite, it's my favourite and at this point it looks like in 12 hours time the Eurovision Song Contest will cross the bridge to Copenhagan. The longer this drags out the less sure I am that Denmark are going to win this by a country mile. However someone stopped the Balkans from trading neighbourly points and if it was Denmark they are going to go big.
My Grade: 10/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Iceland
This is another really strong entry from Iceland this year and one which I expect will not do well on the night. If Greta and Jonsi could not do better than 19th then this is one which sadly will be at the end of the scoreboard tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Azerbaijan
Another contender for the win, their song is weak but the performance of Hold Me is very interesting and does wonderfully distract from the song. This might convincably win but I really hope that it doesn't. I don't think that the Eurovision brand was helped by bringing the contest to Baku last year.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Greece
Greece is certainly in a much stronger position for the win this year given that there are no Balkans in the final. However Greece has entered with stronger songs that this one and though I would like to see it outside of the top 10, there will be no stopping this song's success now.
My Grade: 5/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Ukraine
If anyone can beat Denmark tonight it is Zlata from Ukraine. The performance of this song just blew me away in the first semi-final and the giant, which I though was a terrible idea, actually worked well in the song. Ukraine is another country which may benefit from the absence of the Balkan countries and if this is true, looking at the order of voting I think Ukraine is a possible winner.
My Grade: 9.5/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Italy
One of the talked about entries this year, Italy has a very strong San Remo entry this year that may soak up some votes from the juries. However I disagree with the people who argue this is a winner. Unlike 2011 there are many songs that the juries could vote for. This song is not as strong as Italy's 2011 and 2012 entries and is perhaps a bit too San Remo for Eurovision. Therefore I don't see this as a huge challenger.
My Grade: 5.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
Norway
I'm going to be really controversial right now and say that I do not believe Norway is going to come within an asses roar of the top 10. This is a song that struggled to beat Bombo in the national final and I think that it is the over hyped song of the year.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Georgia
Georgia has a great entry this year that I really love. Eurovision by numbers but still I just want to be drawn into it and sing. I don't think that this is a strong enough number to win out right, particularly when Azerbaijan is strong this year too, but it could still take points from very promising songs.
My Grade: 9/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Ireland
Once again despite being mentioned as a winner Ireland should, on cue fall flat on it's face as what tends to happen at Eurovision finals. I can't really comment on this one without being biased one way or the other. So I'll just make a prediction.
Prediction: 13th-16th
So after all that my top 10 songs in this years Eurovision final are:
France
France this year have a nice song but has some have mentioned no one has this down in their top 10. It is a fairly dull song that could go down well with the juries and manage to get to the top of the right hand side of the scoreboard or it could slide well down it.
My Grade: 3/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Lithuania
Lithuania were certainly the most surprising country to make the final this year. The song is one which I thought would get knocked out in the semi-finals and don't see it going to far tonight.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Moldova
Moldova are always very strong at Eurovision and this year is no different. Aliona is a competent singer and she should do fairly well with the juries tonight. However as she has the third dull song in the opening part of the show I don't think the public are going to support this song enough.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 13th-16th
Finland
I was sickened by the fact I did not put a bet on this to win the semi-final. It was 25/1 on PaddyPower and even an each way bet would have helped the kitty in my mind. I think that this is one of the best songs in this years contest and I think that it may bode well in western Europe. Hard to say how it will go down in the east. I would have said this was certainly going to go top 10 but so many of Finland's neighbours are strong this year that it is hard to say.
My Grade: 8.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
Spain
A dull song which is only helped by a nice instrumental at the start this is a strong contender for last place in the contest this year. Sandwiched between Finland and Belgium and with so few neighbours this year I can't see this going far.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Belgium
Another song that I was surprised to see go through to the final this year. Roberto is certainly way above my expectations of him though they were low enough to begin with. This should do alright for Belgium but it will not be a repeat of 2010. Personally I like the studio version of the song, but not the live one that much.
My Grade: 5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Estonia
Deserving of a place in the final, Estonia have a really lovely song this year that I completely fell for during the semi-finals. They're not going to repeat last year, particularly if the northern countries are strong, but they do deserve credit where it is due. Hopefully this will not be at the end of the scoreboard tonight.
My Grade: 5.5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Belarus
I didn't really take to the new song that Belarus choose after the Rhythm of Love but I really didn't like the performance of the song on Tuesday night. There's far to much going on during the song and it just is not working for me. However I expect that the neighbour of Belarus will ensure this will not do to badly.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Prediction: 13th-16th
Malta
I don't think there is anyone who really does not like this song. It is wonderful and bouncy and Gianluca is just so happy when he performs it that it deserves to do well. While their running order position will not help them the introduction of drag back voting this year should help them a lot. I really like the song too and wish them the best of luck.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
Russia
Clinical as ever I was really impressed by Russia's semi-final performance and even my good mother thought that this was the best song in semi-final 1. Certainly it is a dark horse on paper, but the poor running order position (followed by Cascada) means that this will at best make 5th place. Which Russia would probably still be happy with.
My Grade: 6.5/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Germany
What can we say? One word - Cascada. This has all the right ingredients for another German win but I'm not entirely sure how it will fair on the night. It's not the best song that Cascada could have brought to the contest but it is a definite contender for a win.
My Grade: 8/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Armenia
Armenia did a great performance on the semi-final of this song, certainly it was enough to send Albania home on Thursday and being the only rock song in the final will also play well. Still it is not a great song overall and I could see this quietly move into the top 10. But it could flop too.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
The Netherlands
Doing amazingly well to be in the final Netherlands do need to do well tonight to convince the Dutch public they still can do well in the contest. Singing before Romania and just after an ad break will do them no favours but I still think they can manage. I like this song and hope Anouk can do well tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Romania
This one is really causing me a headache at the moment. There is no reason why this should be allowed to do well yet, if the juries strictly follow their criteria then this is a strong contender. But I still think the shock factor of this song will put some off from voting for it.
My Grade: 2/10
Prediction: 13th-16th
United Kingdom
The internal selection, the fact that they are one of the Big 5 and Engelbert's performance last year really makes it very hard to say how this song will go down. However it is Bonny Tyler and I don't think she will go down without a fight. I think she has a great song and is sure to pick up a few points here and there to lift them out of the bottom of the table.
My Grade: 7.5/10
Prediction: 17th-20th
Sweden
In my humble opinion Sweden have by far and away the most underrated song in this years contest. Though people in Sweden seem to think that this is a weak effort and will not go down well I think it is a strong song that may do well.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Hungary
Another surprise to make the final and another song which is a strong contender for last place. I think it is ok but ok just doesn't cut it for the final.
My Grade: 4/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Denmark
It's favourite, it's my favourite and at this point it looks like in 12 hours time the Eurovision Song Contest will cross the bridge to Copenhagan. The longer this drags out the less sure I am that Denmark are going to win this by a country mile. However someone stopped the Balkans from trading neighbourly points and if it was Denmark they are going to go big.
My Grade: 10/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Iceland
This is another really strong entry from Iceland this year and one which I expect will not do well on the night. If Greta and Jonsi could not do better than 19th then this is one which sadly will be at the end of the scoreboard tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Azerbaijan
Another contender for the win, their song is weak but the performance of Hold Me is very interesting and does wonderfully distract from the song. This might convincably win but I really hope that it doesn't. I don't think that the Eurovision brand was helped by bringing the contest to Baku last year.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Greece
Greece is certainly in a much stronger position for the win this year given that there are no Balkans in the final. However Greece has entered with stronger songs that this one and though I would like to see it outside of the top 10, there will be no stopping this song's success now.
My Grade: 5/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Ukraine
If anyone can beat Denmark tonight it is Zlata from Ukraine. The performance of this song just blew me away in the first semi-final and the giant, which I though was a terrible idea, actually worked well in the song. Ukraine is another country which may benefit from the absence of the Balkan countries and if this is true, looking at the order of voting I think Ukraine is a possible winner.
My Grade: 9.5/10
Prediction: 1st-4th
Italy
One of the talked about entries this year, Italy has a very strong San Remo entry this year that may soak up some votes from the juries. However I disagree with the people who argue this is a winner. Unlike 2011 there are many songs that the juries could vote for. This song is not as strong as Italy's 2011 and 2012 entries and is perhaps a bit too San Remo for Eurovision. Therefore I don't see this as a huge challenger.
My Grade: 5.5/10
Prediction: 9th-12th
Norway
I'm going to be really controversial right now and say that I do not believe Norway is going to come within an asses roar of the top 10. This is a song that struggled to beat Bombo in the national final and I think that it is the over hyped song of the year.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Prediction: 21st-26th
Georgia
Georgia has a great entry this year that I really love. Eurovision by numbers but still I just want to be drawn into it and sing. I don't think that this is a strong enough number to win out right, particularly when Azerbaijan is strong this year too, but it could still take points from very promising songs.
My Grade: 9/10
Prediction: 5th-8th
Ireland
Once again despite being mentioned as a winner Ireland should, on cue fall flat on it's face as what tends to happen at Eurovision finals. I can't really comment on this one without being biased one way or the other. So I'll just make a prediction.
Prediction: 13th-16th
So after all that my top 10 songs in this years Eurovision final are:
12 points - Denmark
10 points - Ukraine
8 points - Georgia
7 points - Finland
6 points - Germany
5 points - United Kingdom
4 points - Sweden
3 points - Malta
2 points - Iceland
1 point - The Netherlands
But enough about me, my prediction for the top 10 is as follows.
1. Denmark
2. Ukraine
3. Azerbaijan
4. Germany
5. Greece
6. Russia
7. Georgia
8. Sweden
9. Armenia
10. Finland
Friday, May 17, 2013
The Final Running Order
In no other year has the running order been so controversial in the contest. Many years before this I can remember running upstairs after any semi-final to see the press conference to see what slots are drawn. However according to the EBU there was no need for me to do this as "the running order has no statistical impact on the outcome of the contest". TM EBU.
This years running order will of course be controversial but here it is:
1. France
2. Lithuania
3. Moldova
4. Finland
5. Spain
6. Belgium
7. Estonia
8. Belarus
9. Malta
10. Russia
11. Germany
12. Armenia
13. Netherlands
14. Romania
15. UK
16. Sweden
17. Hungary
18. Denmark
19. Iceland
20. Azerbaijan
21. Greece
22. Ukraine
23. Italy
24. Norway
25. Georgia
26. Ireland
It is of coursesurprising that SVT, who drew up this running order to be approved by the EBU, didn't place Denmark last. Though it is clear that Sweden do not really want to host the contest again, I think they would be very happy to deliver a win for Denmark. At this point I think it is fairly clear that Denmark is the favourite and I do expect the Danes to win the contest for the third time. The only question left in my opinion is will they be able to break 360 points and become the best Eurovision winner of all time.
Ireland should also be really pleased with being able to close the contest.
More analysis of the draw to follow in the morning.
Thoughts On Tonight's Results
So tonight saw the final ten countries be added to the final line up, and while I wait for the running order to arrive my main thoughts on the talking points of semi-final 2 are:
- Balkan's decide Eurovision: For the first time since 1985 there's no Balkan in the final meaning a lot of votes are going to be swishing around there that would otherwise be used on good old fashioned neighbourly voting. However despite how many people have suggested that the Balkan's will decide the contest this year I would actually suggest that their votes will no longer be bloc but instead go all around Europe.
- San Marino didn't qualify despite the expectations that it could. Personally I thought the performance came across very poorly on television so I was not overly surprised by that.
- Israel didn't get through either, I was surprised by this as I thought that the juries would pull her over the line. However it was a dull song that didn't even win the public televote in Kdam so it understandable why it failed to qualify.
- Hungary qualified: I don't really know how to react to this.
All in all this was a great semi-final and I am really looking forward to the final regardless of who the winners or losers may be, Sweden will put on a great show.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Semi-Final 2: Preview
So we may have already seen the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest *cough*Denmark*cough* but it doesn't mean we have seen all of the top songs of this contest. In reality I think that semi-final 2 actually offers a much broader range of music than semi-final 1, which mostly consisted of pop songs.
So what's on offer?
Latvia
Despite energetic performances, a good song and the mere fact that they are opening semi-final 2, Latvia should have a great entry on their hands. However despite this their entry lacks the luster that I was hoping for and this will have great difficulty qualifying. I guess PeR can take some heart from the fact that Zlata Ognevich was dancing to this today in the press centre during rehearsals.
My Grade: 3/10
Qualifier: No
San Marino
Though San Marino have sent Valentina last year this song could not have been more different. This is a mature, high brow song that should deliver for them. I really like this song, though I wish that it was one minute of ballad and two minutes of disco, but still this should just about qualify. The absence of Italy from voting in this semi-final is a problem for San Marino though.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier: Yes
FYR Macedonia
What can I say about this? I really like Lorenzo and his song. I don't like Esma popping in during it. Overall this is a non-qualifier and a complete mess. It also lacks a lot of neighbours in semi-final 2 and by extension it may find it hard to get points from non-Balkan countries.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Qualifier: No
Azerbaijan
I never really have liked Azerbaijan in the Eurovision Song Contest, except for their entry last year. However this year I think they have a great textbook entry though I am concerned that nerves may get to Farid on the night, it will have a great vocal and will sail into the final.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Finland
This is truly a fun song. I've loved this from when I heard it before the Finnish national final in February. Krista is able to deliver a competent and entertaining performance and I think this should make the final comfortably.
My Grade: 9/10
Qualifier: Yes
Malta
Tonight Gianluca will bring a lot of fun to the stage. However despite what some have said I don't see this as a potential winner. I do see it getting out of this semi-final though, to an average final position.
I really enjoy this song but by no means do I love it.
My Grade: 7/10
Qualifier: Yes
Bulgaria
Montenegro didn't do it. There's very few Bulgarian friends in this semi-final to pull this into the final. No matter what people say it is really hard to believe that this will come anywhere above last.
My Grade: 2.5/10
Qualifier: No
Iceland
I sadly have to say that I don't think Iceland will be able to make the final this year with this song. It is still a great song and could be a great qualifier. However it is highly unlikely that the majority of the qualifiers will come from the first half of the draw so I don't think it will qualify.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier: No
Greece
I really don't over like this song. Its fun but for me it is a bit shallow for what I would want to win the Eurovision. This style of song will always do well at the contest particularly when there is a distinct lack of jokish entries. Certainly a qualifier but hard to say where they will come after this.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Israel
This is arguably one of the best ballads in this year's contest and with a strong performance from Moran this should comfortably qualify.
My Grade: 7.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Armenia
I really do not like this song. It's dull it's boring and I always skip it when I see it on my player. Having said that I could image that the juries may push this through based on the quality of the voices of the song.
My Grade: 1/10
Qualifier: No
Hungary
I always have had a soft spot for this song but I don't think that it will qualify based on the reports I have read from the rehearsals. ByeAlex simply is not making a strong enough effort to do well. I can't imagine this making it above 15th place.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier: No
Norway
Is there any reason why this song will not make it to the final? Margaret has delivered some very strong performances in the national final and in the rehearsals. This is a strong song and singer. I'm not a huge fan of this song and do not understand why it's so hyped up but it still will do well.
My Grade: 6/10
Qualifier: Yes
Albania
From Suus Albania completely changed the style of song they send to Eurovision this year. I was very surprised by this winning FiK and I think that this could do either fairly well or bomb at this year's contest. If it does qualify expect it to receive quite a lot of ex-Yugoslav countries. This is the only real rock song at this year's contest so that cannot be discounted.
My Grade: 4/10
Qualifier: Yes
Georgia
Clearly this is the most cheesy song I could image at Eurovision - and I love this. Song uses every little trick in the book and I just want to be drawn into it and sing it out loud. This is clearly in the final and a possible winner.
My Grade: 9.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Switzerland
Switzerland lacks a lot of luster which I though that it would have when it came to Eurovision. It probably won't qualify unless the Salvation Army really gets involved.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier: No
Romania
No, just no. I don't like this song. This will do well but I can imagine it not qualifying. It should qualify but I think it could not too.
My Grade: 1.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
So my top 10 are:
So what's on offer?
Latvia
Despite energetic performances, a good song and the mere fact that they are opening semi-final 2, Latvia should have a great entry on their hands. However despite this their entry lacks the luster that I was hoping for and this will have great difficulty qualifying. I guess PeR can take some heart from the fact that Zlata Ognevich was dancing to this today in the press centre during rehearsals.
My Grade: 3/10
Qualifier: No
San Marino
Though San Marino have sent Valentina last year this song could not have been more different. This is a mature, high brow song that should deliver for them. I really like this song, though I wish that it was one minute of ballad and two minutes of disco, but still this should just about qualify. The absence of Italy from voting in this semi-final is a problem for San Marino though.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier: Yes
FYR Macedonia
What can I say about this? I really like Lorenzo and his song. I don't like Esma popping in during it. Overall this is a non-qualifier and a complete mess. It also lacks a lot of neighbours in semi-final 2 and by extension it may find it hard to get points from non-Balkan countries.
My Grade: 3.5/10
Qualifier: No
Azerbaijan
I never really have liked Azerbaijan in the Eurovision Song Contest, except for their entry last year. However this year I think they have a great textbook entry though I am concerned that nerves may get to Farid on the night, it will have a great vocal and will sail into the final.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Finland
This is truly a fun song. I've loved this from when I heard it before the Finnish national final in February. Krista is able to deliver a competent and entertaining performance and I think this should make the final comfortably.
My Grade: 9/10
Qualifier: Yes
Malta
Tonight Gianluca will bring a lot of fun to the stage. However despite what some have said I don't see this as a potential winner. I do see it getting out of this semi-final though, to an average final position.
I really enjoy this song but by no means do I love it.
My Grade: 7/10
Qualifier: Yes
Bulgaria
Montenegro didn't do it. There's very few Bulgarian friends in this semi-final to pull this into the final. No matter what people say it is really hard to believe that this will come anywhere above last.
My Grade: 2.5/10
Qualifier: No
Iceland
I sadly have to say that I don't think Iceland will be able to make the final this year with this song. It is still a great song and could be a great qualifier. However it is highly unlikely that the majority of the qualifiers will come from the first half of the draw so I don't think it will qualify.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier: No
Greece
I really don't over like this song. Its fun but for me it is a bit shallow for what I would want to win the Eurovision. This style of song will always do well at the contest particularly when there is a distinct lack of jokish entries. Certainly a qualifier but hard to say where they will come after this.
My Grade: 4.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Israel
This is arguably one of the best ballads in this year's contest and with a strong performance from Moran this should comfortably qualify.
My Grade: 7.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Armenia
I really do not like this song. It's dull it's boring and I always skip it when I see it on my player. Having said that I could image that the juries may push this through based on the quality of the voices of the song.
My Grade: 1/10
Qualifier: No
Hungary
I always have had a soft spot for this song but I don't think that it will qualify based on the reports I have read from the rehearsals. ByeAlex simply is not making a strong enough effort to do well. I can't imagine this making it above 15th place.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier: No
Norway
Is there any reason why this song will not make it to the final? Margaret has delivered some very strong performances in the national final and in the rehearsals. This is a strong song and singer. I'm not a huge fan of this song and do not understand why it's so hyped up but it still will do well.
My Grade: 6/10
Qualifier: Yes
Albania
From Suus Albania completely changed the style of song they send to Eurovision this year. I was very surprised by this winning FiK and I think that this could do either fairly well or bomb at this year's contest. If it does qualify expect it to receive quite a lot of ex-Yugoslav countries. This is the only real rock song at this year's contest so that cannot be discounted.
My Grade: 4/10
Qualifier: Yes
Georgia
Clearly this is the most cheesy song I could image at Eurovision - and I love this. Song uses every little trick in the book and I just want to be drawn into it and sing it out loud. This is clearly in the final and a possible winner.
My Grade: 9.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
Switzerland
Switzerland lacks a lot of luster which I though that it would have when it came to Eurovision. It probably won't qualify unless the Salvation Army really gets involved.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier: No
Romania
No, just no. I don't like this song. This will do well but I can imagine it not qualifying. It should qualify but I think it could not too.
My Grade: 1.5/10
Qualifier: Yes
So my top 10 are:
12 points - Georgia
10 points - Finland
8 points - Iceland
7 points - San Marino
6 points - Israel
5 points - Malta
4 points - Norway
3 points - Switzerland
2 points - Hungary
1 point - Azerbaijan
So I think the following will qualify to the final:
1. San Marino
2. Azerbaijan
3. Finland
4. Malta
5. Greece
6. Israel
7. Norway
8. Albania
9. Georgia
10. Romania
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
A Semi-Final of Surprises
Last nights semi-final certainly outperformed my expectations. In a night where people didn't seem to radically differ on opinions of a few songs, I thought this would make for some pleasant but not exciting television. However as usual I was proven wrong.
Certainly this semi-final delivered a variety of results, some expect and some surprising ones. However it was by no means a repeat of last years Semi-Final 1 shock results.
The usual suspects qualified. Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all flew through more than likely I suspect they scored the top three places in this semi-final.
Moldova and Ireland were also widely expected to qualify and they did. I would also say that Ryan Dolan's performance for Ireland last night was excellent and he did us all proud.
The first real surprise was when Lithuania qualified, written off by everyone I was actually very impressed by the performance in the semi-final though I didn't think that the song was strong enough to allow them to qualify. Belarus, who prompt the quote of the night from my brother ("Why is Amanda Holden coming out of the Kinder egg?") were likely qualifiers in a night that had many northern European and Soviet countries voting in that semi-final.
Estonia also really impressed me on the night. I though Birgit really raised her game on the night and was way head of her national final performance. Finally, who could forget Belgium and the Netherlands? Both of them must be very proud. I thought both countries gave excellent performances, though I do wonder waas Belgium's score impacted on by the fact he was allowed to perform twice?
Finally who could not notice that none of the Balkan's qualified? Next year I suspect it will be wall to wall Balkan ballad coming out of the south east of Europe but until then they can all hope that Macedonia qualifies so they can throw votes at them.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Tonight: Semi-Final 1 (Preview)
The day has finally dawned and Eurovision 2013 is upon us. Today
the speculation and hypothetical what ifs end. It's time for business to begin,
the results are now indeed very real. So whats to look forward to? Who are my
favourites and who's going to qualify? Let's take it from the top.
Austria
Austria opens this years contest with what is a reasonable song
that could do with a somewhat better performance. The song has a good studio
version that just cannot be picked up live. This probably is not a qualifier given
Natalia's performances but still it should be a respectable opener to the show
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? No
Estonia
There are many fans out there for whom this Estonian entry is the
one that bet Winne-Pooh. For me this is a dull not outstanding song that has
its merits but it is completely lost in the overall scale of the contest,
despite a fair draw this probably will end up a near qualifier. This though is
very well performed.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? No
Slovenia
Though this song is the first truly up-tempo number that
the audience will hear there have been many concerns raised about the vocal
abilities behind this song and given that these came through in the jury
performance this song now seems dead in the water. However I would still
maintain that Hanna has a really great song and I enjoy listening to
the studio version of this.
My Grade: 6/10
Qualifier? No
Croatia
Underrated by fans and bookies alike going into this semi-final
Croatia looks not just sure of itself but probably the best Balkan song in this
years contest. Personally I think this is a great entry and even some of the
critics of this song will sure agree that the harmonies are just wonderful.
However before rehearsals started I had concerns that this song may struggle in
the final as it just does not appear to go anywhere in the song. Though this
Klapa entry will surely impress juries, in fact I think it may win the jury
vote tonight.
My Grade: 7/10
Qualifier? Yes
Denmark
In my humble opinion this is the best song in this years contest.
Everything about it just appeals to me. As a Eurovision fan this song leaves me
in the unusual place where I think that though this is my favourite it may not
be the best choice for the contest in the long run. Having said that this will
sail into the final tonight.
My Grade: 10/10
Qualifier? Yes
Russia
Another song that has it's place booked in the final, but for all
the wrong reasons. I see this entry as one which is manufactured and
unoriginal. It will do well this year and could possibly win this semi-final,
it still is a nice song but I just wish it was stronger.
My Grade: 6/10
Qualifier? Yes
Netherlands
This is another song that I really hope qualifies just to prove to
the Dutch that they can do well at the contest. This song as its faults but
overall it makes a nice package that should impress on the night.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier? Yes
Montenegro
No, just no. I really don't like this song and could think of many
others that would have been better choices than a Dubstep entry. I don't get
this but given what some influencial people think I'm inclined to see
it as a qualifier.
My Grade: 4/10
Qualifier? No
Lithuania
I like this song to an extent but this is just not one that will
appeal to the mass audience and will probably not qualify.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? No
Belarus
It really is a shame that Belarus changed their song and I do not
agree with the opinions that if this song was from Turkey we would all be
saying that it was a sure qualifier. Given the reports I have heard from Malmo
over the last few days I think this would be an unlikely qualifier, but given
that we will only be losing six songs this is possible.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? Yes
Moldova
This is an Eastern European song sung in Romania that will appeal
to many people. I see this as a likely qualifier though I think it is a dull
song.
My Grade: 6/10
Qualifier? Yes
Ireland
At this point those of you who have followed the blog with me
should know that I am not over keen on this Irish entry, in particular I do not
think much of the performance. Having said that I am always very pleased to
hear the rather positive feedback and given the late draw and the lack of
anything really challenging after it, Ireland should have a positive outlook.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? Yes
Cyprus
No it's not going to qualify, there is much more entertaining
songs in this semi-final and more importantly there are better songs that will
soak up the jury votes. Not a qualifier in my book though I have enjoyed the
song on occasion.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? Yes
Belgium
Some people argue this is looking more and more sure of a
qualification, I’m starting to agree with them, though this is only due to the
running order position of the song. If this was any earlier in the draw I would
have written this off. It’s by no means my favourite song this year but I don’t
hate it in spite of only hearing it for the first time on the national final.
My Grade: 5/10
Qualifier? No
Serbia
I love the Serbian entry this year either as a studio version or
as a live performance. This is a sure qualifier given the number of neighbours
they have in this semi-final and the song is quite a nice one. How they do on
the final night will largely depend on the running position it gets.
My Grade: 8/10
Qualifier? Yes
So my 12 points are as follows:
12 - Denmark
10 - Ukraine
8 - Netherlands
7- Serbia
6 - Croatia
5 - Slovenia
4 - Moldova
3 - Russia
2 - Austria
1 - Cyprus
But my prediction as to who will qualify is:
Croatia
Cyprus
Netherlands
Denmark
Ukraine
Russia
Moldova
Serbia
Belarus
Ireland
But of course I will be wrong but I do hope you enjoy the show.
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Rehearsals Day 2: The Good, The Bad and Ireland
Today saw eight more countries taking to the Eurovision stage to begin rehearsing for the semi-final that takes place in just one weeks time.
The Good
Unlike yesterday where three of the top four on PaddyPower were rehearsing, so today did not bring quite so many shocks. In reality there is no real outstanding song within these eight though I have a soft spot for Serbia.
Serbia, Cyprus, Moldova and Montenegro all had very competent rehearsals today, the strength of Montenegro was probably the only real surprise, it looks like it will seriously challenge for qualification. Seriously though - do they really need the space helmets.
Serbia did try out a couple of different dresses but coming in the last slot in the first semi-final it is a certain qualifier. Personally I love their song and think they could do better than expected overall in the contest.
Moldova and Cyprus both have similar style ballads though Moldova's performance on stage is certainly more elaborate than Cyprus's. Either way they may still struggle to qualify as they are both fairly dull ballads.
The Bad
Bad is a rather strong word in the context of today's rehearsals. However Belarus, Lithuania and Belgium were all songs that may not be sure of a place in the final and today did them no favours. Belarus just does not have the stage presence, Belgium still had trouble with the vocals and Lithuania probably would be fine if it were not for the attempt to use sunglasses for the performance - like, seriously?
However none of the performances today screamed that there was a serious underlying issue to do with the song or singer. There's nothing that could not be improved on for the second round of rehearsals and I will be keeping a close eye on these and watching with anticipation.
Ireland
Finally we come to Ireland. Reaction to the Irish rehearsal today has been very mixed and has ranged from "fine but nothing special" to "dire" and having seen some of the videos online for the performance in my opinion it is a walking, singing disaster. Nothing is right about the performance, absolutely nothing. The background is uninspired throwing a pile of Celtic symbols in the background of what is meant to be a club song. Vocally there are many problems and the choice of dress for the occasion is brutal. Whoever advised them on dress for Eurovision clearly was having a laugh.
Suffice to say I don't think we've a hope of qualifying on this performance and Ireland really need to up their game if they want to stand a chance on Tuesday next.
More tomorrow as the Semi-final 2 rehearsals kick off.
The Good
Unlike yesterday where three of the top four on PaddyPower were rehearsing, so today did not bring quite so many shocks. In reality there is no real outstanding song within these eight though I have a soft spot for Serbia.
Serbia, Cyprus, Moldova and Montenegro all had very competent rehearsals today, the strength of Montenegro was probably the only real surprise, it looks like it will seriously challenge for qualification. Seriously though - do they really need the space helmets.
Serbia did try out a couple of different dresses but coming in the last slot in the first semi-final it is a certain qualifier. Personally I love their song and think they could do better than expected overall in the contest.
Moldova and Cyprus both have similar style ballads though Moldova's performance on stage is certainly more elaborate than Cyprus's. Either way they may still struggle to qualify as they are both fairly dull ballads.
The Bad
Bad is a rather strong word in the context of today's rehearsals. However Belarus, Lithuania and Belgium were all songs that may not be sure of a place in the final and today did them no favours. Belarus just does not have the stage presence, Belgium still had trouble with the vocals and Lithuania probably would be fine if it were not for the attempt to use sunglasses for the performance - like, seriously?
However none of the performances today screamed that there was a serious underlying issue to do with the song or singer. There's nothing that could not be improved on for the second round of rehearsals and I will be keeping a close eye on these and watching with anticipation.
Ireland
Finally we come to Ireland. Reaction to the Irish rehearsal today has been very mixed and has ranged from "fine but nothing special" to "dire" and having seen some of the videos online for the performance in my opinion it is a walking, singing disaster. Nothing is right about the performance, absolutely nothing. The background is uninspired throwing a pile of Celtic symbols in the background of what is meant to be a club song. Vocally there are many problems and the choice of dress for the occasion is brutal. Whoever advised them on dress for Eurovision clearly was having a laugh.
Suffice to say I don't think we've a hope of qualifying on this performance and Ireland really need to up their game if they want to stand a chance on Tuesday next.
More tomorrow as the Semi-final 2 rehearsals kick off.
Monday, May 6, 2013
Day 1: Rehearsals As Observed In Dublin
Eurovision 2013 really took it up a gear as rehearsals kicked off in Malmo today. So what did we learn today?
The Stage Looks Amazing
I'm really pleased with the overall stage. I was afraid it would be a bit too much like the 2010 stage when SVT were making some many budget cutbacks.
Semi-Final 1 has a dull start
Despite the EBU's shouting about the importance of not using a random order for the draw SF1 still will have a fairly dull opening of Austria, Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia will only have Slovenia to liven the mood.
There was no major surprises today
This nearly was the biggest surprise of all. It is early days yet, though some surprises may come nothing about any of the songs. Austria and Croatia remain borderline qualifiers though I think that Croatia are still an amazing song. Slovenia was the only country with any real vocal problems though given that this is only the first rehearsal there's a lot of time to iron out problems.
Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all remain some of the strongest songs in the competition and all could conceivably win the contest overall, though I remain unconvinced that Russia will be able to do this, given the votes in that block that will go to Ukraine which has a far more original song.
Of course tomorrow I will be very much looking forward to the Irish rehearsal and will be giving some reaction to it tomorrow.
The Stage Looks Amazing
I'm really pleased with the overall stage. I was afraid it would be a bit too much like the 2010 stage when SVT were making some many budget cutbacks.
Semi-Final 1 has a dull start
Despite the EBU's shouting about the importance of not using a random order for the draw SF1 still will have a fairly dull opening of Austria, Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia will only have Slovenia to liven the mood.
There was no major surprises today
This nearly was the biggest surprise of all. It is early days yet, though some surprises may come nothing about any of the songs. Austria and Croatia remain borderline qualifiers though I think that Croatia are still an amazing song. Slovenia was the only country with any real vocal problems though given that this is only the first rehearsal there's a lot of time to iron out problems.
Denmark, Ukraine and Russia all remain some of the strongest songs in the competition and all could conceivably win the contest overall, though I remain unconvinced that Russia will be able to do this, given the votes in that block that will go to Ukraine which has a far more original song.
Of course tomorrow I will be very much looking forward to the Irish rehearsal and will be giving some reaction to it tomorrow.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
On Your Marks, Get Set
Rehearsals for Eurovision 2013 begin at 10:00 am tomorrow and of course for any fan this should give us a more interesting insight into what the Eurovision Song Contest this year looks like and how the competition will pan out.
Sadly for me this year I will not have the time I had last year to sit in front of my computer and enjoy all the updates that come from Malmo as unfortunately UCD decided to schedule their summer exams during the two weeks of the contest.
For me this is quite a dull year. I think last year was the absolute climax for me and this year the combination of lack of time and the fact that none of the entries are really motivating me this year. Yes I want to see Denmark on stage when the credits role on Saturday the 18th May, however unlike many other years the songs that are also potential winners are very good in their own right and probably would do a lot for the image of the contest.
In fact, I am in unusual place where I believe the song I want to win is not the one that I think would be best for this contest in the long run. This has never arisen for me before and probably is what leaves me rather unmotivated for 2013.
Nevertheless over the next two weeks I will be following with interest reading all that I can trying to understand what is happening on the ground in Malmo and trying to answer the question we all want to know. Who will be the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013.
Sadly for me this year I will not have the time I had last year to sit in front of my computer and enjoy all the updates that come from Malmo as unfortunately UCD decided to schedule their summer exams during the two weeks of the contest.
For me this is quite a dull year. I think last year was the absolute climax for me and this year the combination of lack of time and the fact that none of the entries are really motivating me this year. Yes I want to see Denmark on stage when the credits role on Saturday the 18th May, however unlike many other years the songs that are also potential winners are very good in their own right and probably would do a lot for the image of the contest.
In fact, I am in unusual place where I believe the song I want to win is not the one that I think would be best for this contest in the long run. This has never arisen for me before and probably is what leaves me rather unmotivated for 2013.
Nevertheless over the next two weeks I will be following with interest reading all that I can trying to understand what is happening on the ground in Malmo and trying to answer the question we all want to know. Who will be the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013.
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