A Couple Of Surprising Results

While the press gather to fire up live streams and blogs I shall take a couple of moments to discuss the semi-final results. So here is a couple of small points on the contest.

The Qualifiers
Just in case you've forgotten the qualifiers were (In Random Order):

1. Lithuania

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina 

3. Serbia

4. Ukraine

5. Sweden

6. FYR Macedonia

7. Norway

8. Estonia

9. Malta

10. Turkey

The main surprises were the qualification of Lithuania, B+H, Malta and to a lesser extent FYR Macedonia. The biggest losers were Slovenia and Portugal in my opinion. While the names are surprising about 15 songs were in the mix to qualify, no one shocking came out though. My predictions were a bit out - I only got 7/10. 

The Interval Act
I thought that the interval act definitely one of the best we've seen until Ell & Nikki proved that even they thought that their winning song was boring so just sung Waterloo [a bit out of tune] just to confuse people. It was pure car crash television.

Presenters
Presenters were as good as they were in Semi-Final 1. Which was pretty poor.

The Finalists
Finalists are from all over Europe but they break down as follows. 3 Balkans, 2 Baltic, 2 Scandinavia, Turkey, Malta and Ukraine. Which is pretty diverse. The importance of the running order was clearly shown.  Despite predictions of the 3-5 from the first half and 5-7 from the second half being broken it wasn't and the break down was four from the first half and six from the second.


The Draw will take place in the press conference which is currently ongoing.

The Draw 
The positions drawn is as follows:

Lithuania - #4

B+H - #5

Serbia - #24

Ukraine - #25
Sweden - #17
Macedonia - #22
Norway - #12
Estonia - #11
Malta - #21
Turkey - #18

This is a very interesting draw. I'll be writing about this in more detail over the next couple of hours and days but by this time Saturday. 

Semi-Final 2: The Qualifiers

Predictions Time!

Semi-Final 2 is definitively the better one musically but with 5 Balkan countries, two from Scandinavia and two from the Baltics this becomes a hard one to predict. Looking at my workings theres probably 15 songs that could make the final it is just a question of who. So in the order I expect them to score here are my predictions:

1. Sweden

2. Serbia

3. Estonia

4. Norway

5. Turkey

6. Ukraine

7. Georgia

8. Slovenia

9. Bosnia & Herzegovina

10. Portugal

Just Missing Out

11. Macedonia

I'll try to do as much coverage as I can but in the morning I have my driving test so lets hope that I manage to pass this time.

Semi-Final 2: My Favourites

Before I have to delve into the ins and outs of trying to predict how semi-final 2 will go, I have to put up a favs post. Even though this is a better semi musically there is very little that is really getting me excited. The exception being though my top two in this semi-final.

12 points - Sweden

10 points - Portugal

8 points - Netherlands

7 points - Estonia

6 points - Norway

5 points - Slovenia

4 points - Ukraine

3 points - Lithuania

2 points - Serbia

1 point - Malta

I'll but up a predictions post either late tonight or tomorrow morning when I've got reports from the jury rehearsal.

OMG That Was Just A Bit Close!

So tonight from the Crystal Hall the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest was held. Ten Qualifiers made it through to the final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. They are (in order revealed).

1. Romania

2. Moldova

3. Iceland

4. Hungary 

5. Denmark

6. Albania

7. Cyprus

8. Greece

9. Russia

10. Ireland

This means that Montenegro, Latvia, Switzerland, Belgium, Israel, Finland, Austria and San Marino. 

This blog post will be updated as more information comes in and I compose my thoughts. We are awaiting the winners press conference and the draw for the final running order.

Presenters:
The presenters tonight were pretty poor and probably gave the lowest standard of presenting in recent years.

No Surprises: 
Russia, Ireland and Romania were all seen as sure qualifiers. I was impressed with Russia's performance but please pardon my bias, Ireland had a really strong performance but I would say that Jedward did a really good performance.

Denmark and Iceland were also both seen as qualifiers. Denmark won got my vote simply because as I had said before, Denmark still is a stand out entry for me. Iceland was my second favourite. I was somewhat less impressed with the general performance on actually on my TV but I was still very happy with the overall package.

Albania was a little more surprising than the above entries. I've previously mentioned that I suspect that they won the jury vote being vocally really really strong. Greece was a not surprise, though it would be difficult to see them not making the final no matter what they send.

Cyprus was surprising for me, as I didn't expect that both Cyprus and Greece would get through given the similarity of their songs, Ivi also had a fairly poor jury rehearsal. But the song did look good on stage and I was impressed. Moldova though was seen as a bit of an outsider for many but some [like me] did see it as a qualifier. It had a strong vocal for the song so I suspect that it did well with both the jury and the public as it was a lot of fun.

The big surprise really was Hungary, which was the point where I started to worry about our chances. They're song really did nothing for me during the show.

The Draw
The starting positions of each of the following countries is as follows:

Romania - #14

Moldova - #26

Iceland - #7

Hungary - #2

Denmark - #15

Albania - #3

Cyprus - #8

Greece - #16

Russia - #6

Ireland - #23

Running Order Analysis

So far this is shaping up to be an interesting draw. The show will have a dull enough start with UK, Hungary and Albania opening. The UK should be happy enough with this. Hungary will struggle to survive in slot number two - the death slot. So far the songs in the middle of the show should complement each other fairly well.  Azerbaijan is in slot 13 then Romania in #14, Denmark in slot #15 and Greece in slot #16. Cyprus might not be over happy with the draw and I suspect that they will be in the 20th-26th position in the final. Particularly as it is followed by France and Italy, even though Ivi's song is different to Cyprus I still think it is not a good draw for them. Russia also won't be too pleased with their draw but at they are followed by Iceland who will be a complete change from the Russian grannies. 

Ireland should be very pleased with their draw, now while some have jumped the gun just a little, I would not say that this is a pretty good omen for Ireland and they should be able to launch a successful entry from this position. Really if we were going to do very well a couple more things [such as the qualifiers from semi-final 2] will impact on that. We just don't have the information yet. Probability though would say that it is unlikely that Ireland will get all of these favorable conditions together. If you want more info on the importance of the running order we did a theoretical paper earlier this year which can be found here. 

And one more thing.....

My family who was watching Eurovision with me really liked the clip played of the German entry. I think this could be a dark horse but until Thursday evening I'm still going with Sweden as the most likely winner.

Eurovision Semi-Final 1 - For Non Eurovision Super-fans

So today sees the first real tangible signs of Eurovision 2012 with the first live show. While most of my posts are aimed at fans of the contest who follow ESC either all year round or for the national final seasons this one is aimed that those for whom Eurovision is only an annual event.

What's on tonight?
Tonight is the first semi-final, 18 countries from around Europe will compete for 10 spaces in the final, which will contain ten songs from semi-final 1, ten for semi-final 2 and six automatic qualifiers. Jedward will be competing for Ireland tonight. The second semi-final is on Thursday and the final is on Saturday.

Who votes tonight?
A 50/50 combination of expert jury votes and public televotes will decide the ten qualifiers.

What can we expect from juries?
Juries tend to be more conservative in their voting and do support countries that have stronger vocal performances. However they also do recognize a strong song when they see it.

When do Juries vote?
Contrary to what many people believe the juries vote based on the video tapes of the second rehearsal, which is done 24 hours in advance of the final. Today juries across Europe will decide their votes in the morning/early afternoon of the main event.


Does the winner of the semi-final matter?
The winner of the semi-final is not announced until after the final. While a song that wants to win Eurovision probably should win tonight, many songs that have won Eurovision recently came second or even third in their semi-final. The last person to win the semi-final and the final was Alexander Rybak [Norway] in 2009. Last year Greece won their semi-final but only came seventh overall. So no, winning is not essential tonight.

What performances should I be looking forward to tonight?
Montenegro have brought us one of the most bizarre songs ever to grace the stage. The song is called Euro-Nuero and is actually a massive anti-EU song. But most will not understand it, however you also can look forward to the Euro-Nuero monetary break dance.

For those who actually believe that Eurovision can actually produce a couple of hits Iceland is definitely one to watch. Greta Sálome & Jonsi have a big dramatic Icelandic ballad.

Things might seem to be getting a little boring but Romania are sixth up and should fix that with their song "Zaleilah". Hetrosexual males may want to watch for their lead singer.

San Marino have a really catchy but strange song about Social Networks. Once she starts talking about Cybersex you might want to note that she is 37.

Russia have the so called "Russian Grannies" coming to perform their song Party For Everybody. These are performers of various ages ranging from 47-76. They are really cute and definitely worth a watch.  They are one of the favourites to win the whole contest.

Austria have sent their song Woki Mit Deim Popo [shake your ass] which is really entertaining.

Finally Ireland have Jedward and their massive fountain to try and convince Europe to vote for them. Jedward are widely seen as likely qualifiers tonight.

Semi-Final 1: The Qualifiers

Now that the reports from the jury semi-final is in I have pretty much as much information as I'm going to get so it prediction time. As promised I have the ten songs which I believe will qualify to the final but unlike most bloggers and press I also will list them in order of where I think they will place.

These predictions were arrived at by aggregating [fancy word for adding, makes me look really intelligent] my predictions for the juries top 10 and the public top 10. There are problems that can arise by doing this but overall I'm happy with these ten. So here we go, in order of their predicted placing in the final the Top 10 are:

1. Denmark

2. Iceland

3. Russia

4. Romania

5. Albania

6. Greece

7. Moldova

8. Ireland

9. Israel

10. Belgium

Just missing out

11. Cyprus

Obviously these are no more correct than anyone else's guess but it is my best guess.

Other Info: 

Jury Vote Winner: Albania

Public Vote Winner: Russia

Amount of money I'm willing to bet on these 10 qualifying: €0

What A Week!

So as the technical rehearsals draw to a close we now have had a really fun week so I'm going to use this post to look back on that as well as to tell you my top 10 for semi-final 1 and to look to the week ahead.

Rehearsals Week 2012
Sunday (last week) saw the beginning of the rehearsals with the first half of semi-final 1 starting. The big winners here were Iceland and Romania who both went from being likely to definite qualifiers. Belgium also perked themselves up as possible qualifiers. There was one car crash which was Greece who raised a couple of eyebrows with their performance, particularly vocals.

Monday saw people actually consider that there was a mild chance that San Marino could qualify. Denmark and Russia both gave us performances that leads me to believe either could win the first semi-final. Moldova seems to have come across well on stage and Pasha showed us he had some vocals. Ireland managed to underwhelm everyone but everyone still thinks that it is sailing through to the final. Austria was Monday's car crash.

Tuesday saw the rise of Macedonia and the fall of Bulgaria but was by far the dullest day we had.

Wednesday was Sweden's day as their march to victory began. Loreen certainly has her critic's though and there is certainly an anti-Sweden vibe coming through from Baku. It's in many blogs but it seems especially prevalent in the press reports from Baku. Other highlights included Norway's off key rehearsal [well if your like me and don't like Tooji]. Bosina & Herzegovina also fell in many peoples expectations.

Thursday and Friday saw second rehearsals begin. Austria and b redeemed themselves a little, and Ireland got the fountain working. Russia proved that everyone still loves the Grannies and Greece showed they can make marginal improvements to a vocal performance.

Saturday and Sunday saw Sweden take to the stage and finally nail the performance [depending on whether you think she mumbles the song or not]. Norway also managed to get the vocal performance back together. The Big 5 and Azerbaijan also showed us that they are able to take the lead at Eurovision. Italy showed they might not have cared about Eurovision but that they can still do there best to try to win it. Italy now in moved as a strong favourite, probably second to Loreen. Germany showed that Stefan Raab can still produce a good entry and Germany has exceeded expectations to become one of the potential winners of the contest. The UK left us all a bit worried after the first rehearsal but we all calmed down a bit after the second rehearsal. Clearly Engelbert can pull this off live.

My Top 10 [Semi-Final 1]
So that was rehearsal week, but how do the songs stand now? Well I will publish my thoughts on the semi-final 1 qualifiers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning after I get reports for the dress rehearsals and more importantly the jury final. But for now my Top 10 favourites [and my votes are]:

• 12 points - Denmark
• 10 points - Iceland 
• 8 points - Finland
• 7 points - Austria
• 6 points - Romania 
• 5 points - Russia
• 4 points - Belgium
• 3 points - Albania 
• 2 points - San Marino 
• 1 point - Greece

So that's my Top 10 I expect some of you might disagree with it but unfortunately you cannot change my music tastes.

Tomorrow

Though the will be no live shows tomorrow, it is an important day. At 3pm CET the first full run through of the dress rehearsal will begin and, more importantly, at 9pm CET tomorrow evening the jury final will take place. I will have a blog post assessing what happened in that. See you all tomorrow.

Reaction To Rehearsals: Day 8

So today might be the last day of rehearsals but that doesn't mean there are a lots of second rehearsals to get through today.

Estonia - Ott had a great rehearsal today but he is playing around with the notes in the song a lot which might be a little risky. I haven't seen this on the screen but it does look very static on stage, unless camera work is really good this could be a bit dull looking on stage.

Slovakia - Some corrections were made which is a relief. I'm not sure if this is a qualifier but I'd say it still has a chance.

Norway - Vocally this is back on track. He is using a backing singer to get him over the harder notes though, which is something that don't agree with. Tooji is really going to have to make sure he doesn't over perform this.

Bosnia & Herzegovina - This does remind me of Eurovision entries of old. I hate the dress though and I'm not hearing anything overly positive from Baku though.

Lithuania - This song is growing on me (well the last 90 seconds anyway).  This was a good rehearsal but the blindfold really must be dropped.

UK - There have been some very good changes in aspects of the performance but most importantly this was vocally good today. This is looking like a strong entry from the UK.

France - This still looks messy today but it is vocally good again which is a massive concern dealt with.

Italy - This was done as a full dress rehearsal and all is looking perfect on stage, there are very few faults in this entry.

Azerbaijan - All very similar to yesterday's performance but they are deliberately trying to lose this by throwing in the wailing man in the middle. Bit dull but anyhow.

Spain - This is as good as yesterdays performance, which was excellent. In spite of people claiming there is no major connection I think that this is the best vocal at Eurovision.

Germany - After Germany's great rehearsal yesterday all that they would need to be able to do, they held their own today and I think that they should be pretty pleased to be able to do that.

So that's all the technical rehearsals done for 2012. Tomorrow evening dress rehearsals kick off in Baku, with the jury final later that night. I'll put up a post later tonight looking back on this week.