Tuesday, January 10, 2012

A Quick Look At The Odds

Just to break from the mundane day-to-day reaction and reviews today we're going to look at the odds around Eurovision.

Currently the odds cannot be properly trusted because not enough countries have chosen. Notwithstanding this fact looking at the odds currently Greece and Russia are the favorites at 7/1. (Which is still very high). Other high counties: Italy is only 9/1 which, given their selection process seems a little strange, nevertheless, I would not expect an Italian win this year. Cyprus are 11/1 which reflects the strength of their national final songs this year. Denmark who I think has a good chance at winning this year is still back on 16/1, which could be a good bet.

Moving further down the list Spain and Ireland are 33/1 which doesn't reflect their possibilities. Of the two songs picked so far Albania is 41/1 and Switzerland is 25/1.

Looking at Melodifestivalen 2012 according to the odds (without hearing the songs): The Moniker is the favorite to win the first semi-final. Timoteij are favorites to win the second semi-final, Youngblood in the third and Danny Saucedo is the favorite for the fourth semi-final and favorite to win the whole competition. Strangely Ulrik Munther is second favorite to win outright (11/2)  and Charlotte Perrelli is 11/1.

Looking at DMGP 2012, Christian Bons and Patrick Isakson are favorites to win outright, with Aya (singing a song by the writers of Satellite) is second favorite.

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