Saturday, March 31, 2012

Fan Favourites?

Before any of the OGAE results come in, before everyone completes their reviews we take a look at who might be doing well across the amazing world of Eurovision Fandom.

This year there is no shortage of songs for die hard fans. I think that there is quite a number of strong songs in Eurovision this year and recently EscToday launched their polls of fans. This a good gauge because the readership of the website is so huge that they give a fairly accurate view of fans thoughts on the songs. So I took a look at the results coming through, and then twisted them around in a simple but bizarre formula to get the fan favourite.

So aside from the limitations of the model so lets have a look at the bottom two on the list.

10 Cyprus
11 Netherlands
12 Romania

So this is a interesting batch of songs. Romania are probably correctly gauged and Netherlands look about right in 11th but as you will see as we go up the list there are surprises. Netherlands don't hold a commanding number of 12's in the poll but as we look at 10's they have quite a few. For me Netherlands song as gotten a surprising reaction from fans. Cyrus being in tenth is a surprise as I had assumed that it would come out in the top 5 of this. I firstly thought that the mathematical model might be wrong but no, it only has around 26% 12's.
We now move on to the next couple of songs.

7 Norway
8 UK
9 Germany

I guess the only surprise here Germany, whose song is slightly too inoffensive, in my opinion. I was surprised to see it do so well as it is not being heavily talked about. Norway and the UK is expected, the UK has been gaining as a fan favourite country over the last number of years. Norway, well, is Norway.

4 Spain
5 Italy 
6 Serbia 

On these figures Serbia might seem a little low but it got more 12's than Italy but a lot less 10's therefore Italy is a bit higher. Spain is a bit surprising to see up that far, with no disrespect to Pastora I still think that it isn't a strong enough song to do as well on the night.

1 Sweden
2 Iceland
3 Slovenia

Sweden is certainly no surprise, the only surprise is the amount of 12's they have received. Sweden scored about 56% of the 12's. Iceland also surprised me by scoring just over 50% of 12's, while I had expected them to do well and indeed in second, but the scale of the 12's really surprised me. Really and truly Slovenia is a shock to see it do so well.

In comparison to last year fans appear to be a lot happier with the songs. Last year in EscToday's polls few songs broke 25% of 12's. This year many songs are breaking 25% (about 12 of them). Last year France and Estonia both were touching 40% however this year the top 2 are breaking 50%.  

So this might not be the OGAE, but this is a first look at fan votes. The OGAE usually delivers a highly conservative vote, so it will be interesting to see how it shapes up. Of course I will be keeping a close eye on how these countries vote. Until then we will keep the reviews flowing.

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